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Article / 23 June 2016 at 23:51 GMT

Opinion polls place Remain camp in the ascendant

First in Business Worldwide. /
  • YouGov opinion poll showed 52% favoured staying in the EU, 48% against
  • However YouGov does stress that it is "still too close to call"
  • Ipsos-Mori poll on Wednesday showed a 54% staying vote, with 46% against


Britain appears to favor remaining in the European Union in Thursday's referendum, according to a new opinion poll released after voting ended.

The YouGov poll showed 52% of respondents favoured staying in the economic and political bloc, while 48% preferred leaving. The survey of 4,772 people involved the polling firm going back to voters it had spoken to previously to see how they actually voted.

Joe Twyman, YouGov's head of Political and Social Research, said that the final result was still too close to call, however. "The results are close and it is too early to call it definitively. But these results, along with the recent trends and historical precedent, suggest a Remain victory is the more likely outcome."

A separate Ipsos-Mori poll taken on Wednesday and today showed that 54% of voters had


The national result is expected to be declared on Friday morning around 0700 GMT

voted to remain in the EU and 46% to leave according to the firm's chief executive Ben Page on Twitter. The estimated turnout for the entire UK is 83.7%, Sky News reported. Voting stopped at 2200 GMT and the counting of votes has started in 382 local areas, across 12 regions.

A final, national result is expected to be declared on Friday morning around 0700 GMT after all the local results are declared and then collated into totals for each of the regions.

The referendum has been especially hard to predict. There is little or no data to compare the voting pattern in this referendum with. Plus, aside from the YouGov poll, UK broadcasters have not commissioned traditional "exit polls" such as those run after a general election.

Several polls released earlier Thursday had pointed to a lead for the remain camp.

Sunderland, in the north of England, Wandsworth in London and Foyle in Northern Ireland are expected to be the first to report but regional results won't be announced until local area counts (within the respective region) are completed.

The working class region of Sunderland is expected to be a bellwether of whether the leave campaign has managed to sway this demographic, according to the think tank Open Europe.

Once every regional total is announced, an official referendum result will be declared by Chief Counting Officer Jenny Watson.

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-- Edited by Adam Courtenay

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