Video

Kim Cramer Larsson
Areas covered in this webinar by Saxo Bank technical analyst Kim Cramer Larsson include EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURGBP, gold, silver, S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Dax, the FTSE and the Dow Jones.
Article / 14 May 2015 at 14:38 GMT

Old gold bugs beware – we've been here before

Technical Analyst / FuturesTechs
United Kingdom
  • $1223 is a repeated sticking point
  • Patience might well pay off
  • Targets are there but resistance must go

By Clive Lambert

Gold rallied $40 in two days just a few weeks ago. Everyone got excited. And everyone got hosed. It gave it all back in the subsequent three sessions.

Before that, in February and early March, we formed a resistance level at $1223. We failed here again in late March and again in early April.

The last three sessions have seen a very nice rally in gold, and the bugs are coming out of the woodwork. I'm not saying this time isn't the real deal, I'm saying it's worth waiting another day or two (or $5-10) to make sure we're not just hitting this resistance again.

Because if we do break $1220-30 there is scope for a bigger move to $1292, even $1307, but one of the smallest words in that last sentence is one of the most important: "if".

Here's a chart with lots of arrows on it just to prove my point!

Gold futures daily candlestick: Possible Head and Shoulders bottom with targets like $1292 and $1310, but only if we see off this strong area of resistance. 

Gold
Source: Saxo Bank. Create your own charts with Saxo Trader click here to learn more 


– Edited by Clare MacCarthy

 

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4y
DudetteUK DudetteUK
well said Clive!
4y
Clare MacCarthy Clare MacCarthy
Agree with you there, Dudette. We should never forget history – no matter how recent :-)
4y
Chedzoy Chedzoy
Thanks for the sobering bucket of cold water over the head Clive. I was beginning to get excited!!
4y
Wings Wings
Hello all,

Forgive my ignorance, being a newbie in this Trading World my point/question might be "stupid", but seing the gold price hovering at around $1200 for quite a while now, can this mean that the current Bull market is, as has been said by many, to be only a bubble and that a severe Bear market is to come at any time?

Looking at the gold price which, to me, seems a good indication of the market in general, I can't help but noticing that in the "good" times of 2004 ( gold at around $400) the price was quite low compared to now, in a so-called bull market, that this "new price is the standard of gold and that we can therefore expect the gold to go even higher than earlier? Perhaps going far beyond $ 2000 in the coming Bear market?

Brgds

J
4y
Chedzoy Chedzoy
Hi Clive,
Do you evaluate that gold has broken out higher, or are we still clutching at straws?
4y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
To be sure wait until this evening to make sure the US Mob don't use it as a selling opportunity. Requiring some patience, this. Here's a line from my note to clients this morning:

"A move higher has been attempted this morning that has found sellers at 1231. this is the last level the bulls need to clear before they get our backing for a move to 1292, so let’s see if this can be achieved today. I’m always slightly dubious of big moves in Gold in Asian or European trade as the really important price action is always when our US friends are awake…"
4y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
...See what i mean? first hour of US trade: Sell off from 1228 to 1222... not there yet.
4y
Chedzoy Chedzoy
Well done, and thanks Clive. You're a wise old owl !!!
4y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
So furstrating that it's not giving a clear signal but best to be on the sidelines until it does!
4y
Chedzoy Chedzoy
Good morning Clive, Is the 1183 level on your chart, the expected support to halt Gold's decline and can we expect a bounce from here do you think ? Your 1230 resistance proved very accurate.
4y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
No, I don't see strong support here, except on the Profile charts. Maybe 1168-76, but if this area breaks we retest 1141 and 1131, and for now I think risk is to the downside.
4y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
1192.7 and 1196.2 are the levels above that the bulls need to retake to reduce some of said downside risk...

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