Short term
Trade view / 21 September 2016 at 9:19 GMT

Oil reversal after bullish Gartley pattern

Director / PIA First
United Kingdom
Background

Oil prices have recovered over the last few days and left us with some interesting formations. The bullish Gartley pattern (although not exact) looks to have completed prior to the rally and the daily reversal candles indicate further upside is now expected. Ideally, the CD leg of the Gartley formation should have extended to at 127% of the AB move but fell short.

However, we cannot ignore the bullish reversal candles (bullish hammer, inverted hammer and bullish outside candle) posted over the last three days.

We look to set longs with a stop below the recent swing low to target a move back to the top of the range.

Management and risk description

Once the first target is reached, move stop to entry and target higher resistance.

Parameters

Entry: Buy USOILNOV16 at current levels and on a dip to $44.50/barrel

Stop: A break below $42.50/b

Target: $47.50 and $49.00 

Time horizon: 1-3 weeks

Charts:

Bullish Gartley and reversal candles
oilus


Five-year chart
oilus2
Charts courtesy of TradingView.com


— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
21 September
Robnor87 Robnor87
Only thing that could destroy this is a rate hike but im highly doubtful about that.
21 September
Pandorra Pandorra
Steve, are your 'buy' recommendation for oil valid regardless of what FOMC says tonight?
21 September
Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading
Yes absolutely
21 September
MSN28 MSN28
Steve, hi. Would you please clarify. Are you agreeing with Pandorra that FOMC will unlikely raise the rates or you are saying that even if the rates will go up, the oil will not fall?
21 September
Pandorra Pandorra
Thanks Steve for quick respond, coz my eyes still on the dip and a bit on 46.78 in clx6
21 September
MSN28 MSN28
Sorry, I was referring to Robnor's 87 comment
21 September
Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading
Hi MSN28 - I think it is unlikely that FED will raise rates at the FOMC meeting but of course, there is a chance. However, the trade idea is based on technical analysis which is determined by the current/historic price movements and does not take any potential interest rate changes into account. I hope this clarifies?
21 September
MSN28 MSN28
Thanks Steve, it does.
23 September
Pandorra Pandorra
Hi Steve, could you please update is your trade view still in play for now. Tnx

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