Squawk / 08 September 2016 at 19:13 GMT
Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
Oil has surged higher tonight with traders (or robots) buying first and asking questions later. With this report clearly being completely out of kilter we can expect some sharp revisions next week. The slump was driven by a sharp slowdown in imports due to Tropical storm Hermine.
Chart 1: US Crude oil imports slumped by almost 2 million barrels per day last week. This the equivalent of one VLCC supertanker per day.
Chart 2: The revision prone oil production estimate slumped to near the low for the year.
Chart 3: A counter-seasonal decline in gasoline inventories added some additonal support to the rally
08 September
Market Predator Market Predator
Worst inventory since 1999
08 September
AndrejLences AndrejLences
Thanks, I agree. I must also point to the fact that Saudi arabia's crude oil stockpiles slumped a lot . In my view here your analysis is also proof that US is importing excess crude oil to keep market in oversupply mode. But fundamentals are fundamentals and I think we are heading to 55-60 USD, before a correction. Can I be right ?
08 September
asousa27 asousa27
Ole do you think the seasonal view of crude oil decrease is still valid?
09 September
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
The next couple of weeks data will be tricky due to big revisions, a short week and continued fading impact of tropical storms. On that basis we may not get a clear picture sometime soon. The strong refinery demand for gasoline could indicate that this year may be different but to early to say.


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