Relevant articles for you

Video

Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Clive Lambert of FuturesTechs explains why he is trading USDJPY. He plans to buy a break above 112.21 - 112.34 with a 50 tick stop. His targets are 113.42 and 114.50. Clive Lambert explains the background to a selected trade every Friday on Trading Floor.
Short term
Trade view / 16 June 2016 at 12:33 GMT

Oil decline and Brexit issues bashing loonie

FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
Canada
Instrument: USDCAD
Price target:
Market price:
Background

USDCAD was 1.2750 by mid-morning on Monday and just flirted with 1.3035 on a combination of falling oil prices and risk aversion from the looming Brexit vote in the UK. Tomorrow’s Canada CPI data should have little to no impact on FX markets due to the Brexit vote and the fact that the Bank of Canada is more concerned with the impact of the Alberta wildfires on the economy.  The bank is on hold for the next few months.

The intraday and short term technicals are bullish while trading above 1.2940, supported by this morning’s break above the 1.3020 area and are targeting a retest of the May 2016 peak. The move through 1.2980 which represented the 61% Fibonacci retracement fo the May-June range suggests that a 100% retracement is in order.

WTI oil prices have broken below the uptrend line from the February low at $48.05 which points to further losses toward the $45.00 area.

The mix of Brexit fears and falling oil prices should boost USDCAD and lead to a test of the 200-day moving average

Management and risk description

This is a risky trade as the USDCAD rally from the June low is well underway and vulnerable to a weekend profit taking selloff. The trade is vulnerable to a rally in oil prices or a new bout of “risk seeking” sentiment, perhaps from a fresh Brexit poll with the "Stay" camp  holding a decisive lead.

Parameters


Entry: Buy ½ position of USDCAD at market (Currently 1.3005)  Balance at 1.2955

Stop: 1.2930 offered

Target: 1.3150

Time horizon: 3 days


Chart USDCAD 30 minute with second buy level noted
usdcad
 Source: Saxo Bank

Chart USDCAD 4 hour with Fibonacci retracement levels
usdcad
Source: Saxo Bank

Chart: USDCAD 5 year daily with moving averages

usdcad
 Source: Saxo Bank

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
1y
John Roberti John Roberti
dear Mike,
1y
John Roberti John Roberti
Thank you for your complete and precise answers to my questions! Let's hope now for the best.I am with you on this one. We should be without contrarian data on oil for the rest of the week...
1y
John Roberti John Roberti
dear vMike,
1y
John Roberti John Roberti
amazing! wti reached its next target at 46,24 (drop of one dollar in this afternoon) and the usdcad did not move since it made a yoyo move from 1,3020 top 1,3067 and back! By the way, I am in usdcad long from 1,2790 and loading as it moves up but with tight stop
1y
John Roberti John Roberti
and it is now really coming down...?
1y
andywielkiszu andywielkiszu
crazy martket. really...no more words
1y
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Grrrrrrr!. Talk about bad luck. WTI is in a free-fall and hits 45.91-and USDCAD sinks? What a lousy time for the relationship to take a time out.

This trade idea got stopped out when the US dollar gave back all of its gains in the previous 24 hours. Was it due to a change in Brexit Risk sentiment? DID FX markets get overly bullish US dollars? You be the judge.

A correction in USDCAD was expected but the speed of the drop while WTI was declining was not.

This Trade was stopped out (at 1.2926) for a loss of .0056 points

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail