Kim Cramer Larsson
Areas covered in this webinar by Saxo Bank technical analyst Kim Cramer Larsson include EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURGBP, gold, silver, S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Dax, the FTSE and the Dow Jones.
Short term
Trade view / 06 October 2017 at 0:18 GMT

NZDUSD downside may still have a lot more room to run

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
Instrument: NZDUSD
Price target: 0.7008
Market price: 0.7112

After NZDUSD traverses today’s US employment report, attention will turn to the announcement of the result of the recent New Zealand election on Saturday; more specifically the results from the special votes for the September 23 election. The election night seats-in-Parliament split is likely to change and influence the process of forming a new government.

Most commentators expect the specials will go in favour of opposition parties, increasing the odds the sitting National Party government will be displaced by a Labour/Greens/NZ First coalition.
But before that, the jobs added, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings numbers out of the US take centre stage. A low nonfarm jobs number is being discounted due to last month’s hurricanes. A better than expected number would likely give USD an immediate boost. It would also further lock down the probability of a December rate hike, currently sitting over 80%,
Management and risk description

In accordance with my Elliott Wave analysis the Kiwi has sold-off well and now the kiwi displays a possible 3-month head and shoulders classical charting reversal formation (see daily chart below), with a sustained break below Neckline support, currently at .7085, establishing a downside target of 0.6700 over the coming weeks.

This pattern has some notable defects: distorted/unsymmetrical left and right Shoulders and a clear down sloping neckline. Typically, such defects would render this pattern unreliable. However, given the kiwi’s still bearish wave structure, this head & shoulders pattern may nevertheless work out.


Entry: Today: Kiwi is seen as a Sell at 0.7115/0.7125 (a move below 0.7085 first would however cancel this).

Stop: just above 0 .7150, initially.

Target: 50% at .7008 and 50% at 0.6716.

Time horizon: allow a few weeks at least for both targets to be met.

Daily NZDUSD chart (click to expand)
NZDUSD daily chart

Source: ThomsonReuters 

Weekly NZDUSD chart (click to expand)

Source: ThomsonReuters  

For more on forex, click here.

— Edited by Robert Ryan

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on is found here
06 October
Treve Treve
thanks Max very interesting!
06 October
marran marran
any thoughts on the audnzd max?
06 October
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Upside potential
06 October
Gbpaud Gbpaud
07 October
Morris Morris
Was the wave count on Weekly chart a bit tricky?
07 October
Max McKegg Max McKegg
If the Wave Count is unclear then best left out
09 October
Morris Morris
10 October
Gbpaud Gbpaud
Hi max,can I enter the trade now?
12 October
marran marran
any thoughts on this pair at the moment max?
12 October
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Recovery growing legs


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail