Sterling has been blasted lower after BoE governor Carney cast doubt on a previously pretty-much-expected UK May rate hike. The EU's rejection of Britain's latest Brexit-Irish border plan only served to deepen the rot.
Squawk / 06 June 2016 at 18:08 GMT
Hypothesis Testing
United Kingdom
Now that we have had the Yellen fun and we look towards tomorrows market moves it might be of interest to SP500 traders the following;

01/01/1993 - 31/12/2013 periods...using a daily chart.
there were 5,529 real trading days.....all weekends and public holidays have been stripped out.
ALL relevant time adjustments for USA summer time have been accounted for too etc etc.

When the SP500 opening bell opens UP and the market subsequently closes down it occurred 948 times a 17.15% occurrence. Almost a 1 in 5 chance of this occurring if you like.

BUT when you look at recent data say just the 2014 period we have 252 trading days whereby there were 30 such outcomes or if you prefer a 11.9% occurrence a comparison that is almost a 1 in 8 chance of this occurring.

So if sentiment remains as positive as we have seen it may be wiser to follow the momentum.
fxtime fxtime
2094.1 remains a crux level for me on the cash market however....a close below that implies a swing short for me but as yet we haven't seen that coming close. Tick tock I wait ...but until that happens this market has a consolidation feel to it which I am not keen to chase. Our old friend WTI may be the catalyst to bring the markets down and not Yellenbut I suspect the risk to the downside is building. :-)


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