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Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Ian Coleman of First4Trading.net explains in a technical analysis of charts why he is trading EURUSD. Coleman is looking to sell EURUSD at 1.1660 with a stop at 1.1690. His target is 1.1565.
Squawk / 05 July 2016 at 12:30 GMT
Hypothesis Testing
United Kingdom
Not sure if you remember this stratgy but the first Tuesday of the month if greater than -3 on SP500 then look to long for +5 at tonights close!
I have a 30yr data set showing *4% probable but that is misleading as we only get 12 days that occur each year and not all of those are negative so all i can say is historically the theory is worth watching but statistically it is unproven.
1y
fxtime fxtime
Sorry mate my typing on a phone is useless it seems....84% probable is what should have appeared above. The SP500 is substantially beyond the -3 trigger threshold so looks like this trade set up will trigger at the close for me.
1y
kom75 kom75
Yes, i remember. I think last month failed, which is great news for tonight. I mean probability of course:)
1y
fxtime fxtime
Right on both counts :-)
1y
Dj TinTin Dj TinTin
Guys got any entry stops and limits in mind
1y
fxtime fxtime
DJ...this is a probability play and relies on the closing bell price....the aim is to enter a long ...looking for +5 handles/pts sometime Wednesday. You enter a long as near as possible to the closing bell tonight.
1y
fxtime fxtime
Streuth a tortuous ride on SP500 for this trade.....it got within 0.2pts early this morning before falling back....but amazingly a trade confirmation has just appeared confirming this trade has finally completed !! It may be a profit but the drawdown was just daft...next time I will use a binary one touch. Sorry about the way this trade played out albeit successfully mate.....hopefully you took some profits this morning and managed the trade better than me?
1y
kom75 kom75
Well, not much. I closed it now for tiny 2 points. But on my platform spx did only 4.5 points and futures 3.25. Btw. I lost on 30m range sp500 today, had a 8.25 point sl. Day was so bad or sl too small?
1y
fxtime fxtime
We have FOMC mins tonight and it may well skew things...I notice the USDCAD is also suffering from illiquidity.
1y
fxtime fxtime
Remember Kom we are trading probability.....the open range should in all probability be equal to the days move(and usually it is)....today looks a bum day but overall you will see it works and all the trades published are based on the on-balance you will see your trade account steadilly grow. Sorry about today though as no one wants to suffer a loss. But they do sadly happen. We are in a business that accountants detest as profits are not linear LOL.
1y
kom75 kom75
You have no reason to be sorry. I'm thankfull to get such a simple and profitable strategies from you. Always will be some loses. I was just curious, because out of 11 scalps today, 5 was on red, when usually 8-9 of 10 is winning. I play your strategies from january, so i know they work:). Just have to readjust sl, this is my main problem now. In short, thanks for all your work mate
1y
fxtime fxtime
For the trade today where I sought +5 (which eventually I got) I traded the usual cfd manner. For this trade and a couple of others I do not run a stop but instead work on the principle of opening an opposing trade short as a hedge at the same time should the day low be broken using the candle highs as my rolling stop. Globex triggered the short hedge but was stopped at 2079.25...it triggered again approx 9am this morning BST and again was stopped later at 2079.00 whereby the trade moved in the expected direction. Hope this helps?
1y
kom75 kom75
Very much. Thanks
1y
fxtime fxtime
For general 30min strategies is your stop a close on the opposite side of the triggering range or are they fixed size stops? i will post later a better strategy on this for you which will reduce losses. The one I posted was for traders to start from but clearly you are ahead of the curve so give me a bit of time and I will post you a revised version for you.
1y
kom75 kom75
I use oposite side of the range for brekout strategies, but maximum 50 pips for fx. I try different sl for 30m range. It looks like 20 something sl for sp500 is not too bad, but would prefer no so wide
1y
fxtime fxtime
Agree 20 is too wide.....normally an optimum of 9 is the most efficient...give me a bit of time and I will fwd an adapted strategy for you to consider.
1y
kom75 kom75
Thanks

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