Video

James Kim@Saxo
James Kim, sales trader at Saxo Capital Markets Australia, examines trading strategies for the week in a technical analysis of forex and equity charts. Kim looks at trends in the US dollar index, and looks at pairs such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDJPY. He also comments on the Nikkei 225, E-Mini S&P 500, copper and gold.
Article / 06 June 2014 at 8:18 GMT

Nonfarm payrolls: Let's have your estimates for May!

-
Denmark

By Mads Koefoed

Attention Traders!

It's that time of the month again, when market participants around the world gather for just-for-fun guessing games of the monthly US nonfarm payrolls number.
 
The US employment statistic is, of course, an important monthly data print from which investment and policy decisions are in part derived.
 
Make your estimate by posting a comment below. The closest estimate wins a TradingFloor.com branded prize.
 
Once the number is released at 12:30 GMT, it will be updated for you to see on this post. The number will also appear in the financial calendar where historic data is also available.
 
Join the competition: You can find our Saxo Bank preview here, but what do you think? Let us know in the comment section and join the competition.
2y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
I'll get the ball rolling with a 200,000 prediction, What do you think?
2y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Note that the Bloomberg consensus estimate is 215,000 with a high of 350,000 and a low of 110,000.
2y
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
227k
2y
Dan Larsen Dan Larsen
280k
2y
Gyula Szathmary Gyula Szathmary
199k, let's see!
2y
Owen Thomas Owen  Thomas
261K. I just want to beat Peter Garnry...
2y
John J Hardy John J Hardy
What's with all of the optimists?
2y
marcovitz marcovitz
185k
2y
Teis Knuthsen Teis Knuthsen
My daughters birthday today 6/6/2002 so lets make it 206!
2y
Owen Thomas Owen  Thomas
It's Friday, John Hardy.
2y
iMemon iMemon
195
2y
triantafx triantafx
190k
2y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
@John J Hardy Complacency!? And it's Friday
2y
Dora Szucs Dora Szucs
240k
2y
cvp2010 cvp2010
110k
2y
tk1303 tk1303
205k
2y
krafa63 krafa63
218K
2y
keekko keekko
145k
2y
GPAR GPAR
187K
2y
Nacc Nacc
225k
2y
Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
a steady 192,000
2y
Paul168 Paul168
294k
2y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
I fired up the random number generator here at FuturesTechs and it tells me to expect a number of 208,000.

Have a good one and hopefully my "Do's and Don'ts" Video offers some wisdom! https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/the-dos-and-donts-of-trading-on-nfp-day-771375
2y
andols andols
125k
2y
malik malik
213k
2y
John J Hardy John J Hardy
+159k some day, we'll need to remember to include the sign
2y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
We now have 28 estimates with a median of 211,000 (close to the Bloomberg consensus of 215,000). We have a high of 310,000 (Simon Fasdal) and a low of 110,000 (cvp2010). Keep them coming!
2y
cantalupe cantalupe
254k after one revision
2y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
Nice skew ;)
2y
fxtime fxtime
256k
2y
Dr Chris Dr Chris
175K
2y
fezso98 fezso98
199k
2y
Hrnielsen Hrnielsen
209k
2y
DudetteUK DudetteUK
187K
2y
Dani Biru Dani Biru
250K
2y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
I just rolled into the office here in New York. On the way to work, the infamous guy selling me the bagel told me 175k is the number. So that's what I shall go with. Thanks Joey
2y
CRosenlov CRosenlov
245K
2y
Vaquero93 Vaquero93
193K
2y
luck luck
221k
2y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
We have 43 estimates now with a median of 208,000. 53 minutes to go until NFP is released.
2y
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
308K- go big or go home :)
2y
sazam sazam
328K
2y
falcao falcao
201k
2y
Joseph Ferreria Joseph Ferreria
170k but it wont matter
2y
gcs gcs
198
2y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
So the Median is bang on the number that www.random.org gave me this morning!! Nice.

Serge, I like your style!
2y
gcs gcs
198k
2y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
With 13 minutes to go we have 58 estimates with a median of 205,000, 10,000 below Bloomberg's consensus estimate.
2y
Jens_Black Jens_Black
183k
2y
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
As seeing boom in american stock so i am expecting greater figure
2y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
217,000!!!
2y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
krafa63 is the winner with a 218,000 guess... congratulations!
2y
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
Congratulate to crafa63
2y
krafa63 krafa63
Thanks.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Show latest activity
Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail