Article / 06 June 2014 at 8:18 GMT

Nonfarm payrolls: Let's have your estimates for May!

Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark

By Mads Koefoed

Attention Traders!

It's that time of the month again, when market participants around the world gather for just-for-fun guessing games of the monthly US nonfarm payrolls number.
 
The US employment statistic is, of course, an important monthly data print from which investment and policy decisions are in part derived.
 
Make your estimate by posting a comment below. The closest estimate wins a TradingFloor.com branded prize.
 
Once the number is released at 12:30 GMT, it will be updated for you to see on this post. The number will also appear in the financial calendar where historic data is also available.
 
Join the competition: You can find our Saxo Bank preview here, but what do you think? Let us know in the comment section and join the competition.
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
I'll get the ball rolling with a 200,000 prediction, What do you think?
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Note that the Bloomberg consensus estimate is 215,000 with a high of 350,000 and a low of 110,000.
1y
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
227k
1y
Dan Larsen Dan Larsen
280k
1y
Gyula Szathmary Gyula Szathmary
199k, let's see!
1y
Owen Thomas Owen  Thomas
261K. I just want to beat Peter Garnry...
1y
John J Hardy John J Hardy
What's with all of the optimists?
1y
marcovitz marcovitz
185k
1y
Teis Knuthsen Teis Knuthsen
My daughters birthday today 6/6/2002 so lets make it 206!
1y
Owen Thomas Owen  Thomas
It's Friday, John Hardy.
1y
iMemon iMemon
195
1y
triantafx triantafx
190k
1y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
@John J Hardy Complacency!? And it's Friday
1y
Dora Szucs Dora Szucs
240k
1y
cvp2010 cvp2010
110k
1y
tk1303 tk1303
205k
1y
krafa63 krafa63
218K
1y
keekko keekko
145k
1y
GPAR GPAR
187K
1y
Nacc Nacc
225k
1y
Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
a steady 192,000
1y
Paul168 Paul168
294k
1y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
I fired up the random number generator here at FuturesTechs and it tells me to expect a number of 208,000.

Have a good one and hopefully my "Do's and Don'ts" Video offers some wisdom! https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/the-dos-and-donts-of-trading-on-nfp-day-771375
1y
andols andols
125k
1y
malik malik
213k
1y
John J Hardy John J Hardy
+159k some day, we'll need to remember to include the sign
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
We now have 28 estimates with a median of 211,000 (close to the Bloomberg consensus of 215,000). We have a high of 310,000 (Simon Fasdal) and a low of 110,000 (cvp2010). Keep them coming!
1y
cantalupe cantalupe
254k after one revision
1y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
Nice skew ;)
1y
fxtime fxtime
256k
1y
Dr Chris Dr Chris
175K
1y
fezso98 fezso98
199k
1y
Hrnielsen Hrnielsen
209k
1y
DudetteUK DudetteUK
187K
1y
Dani Biru Dani Biru
250K
1y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
I just rolled into the office here in New York. On the way to work, the infamous guy selling me the bagel told me 175k is the number. So that's what I shall go with. Thanks Joey
1y
CRosenlov CRosenlov
245K
1y
Vaquero93 Vaquero93
193K
1y
luck luck
221k
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
We have 43 estimates now with a median of 208,000. 53 minutes to go until NFP is released.
1y
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
308K- go big or go home :)
1y
sazam sazam
328K
1y
falcao falcao
201k
1y
Joseph Ferreria Joseph Ferreria
170k but it wont matter
1y
gcs gcs
198
1y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
So the Median is bang on the number that www.random.org gave me this morning!! Nice.

Serge, I like your style!
1y
gcs gcs
198k
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
With 13 minutes to go we have 58 estimates with a median of 205,000, 10,000 below Bloomberg's consensus estimate.
1y
Jens_Black Jens_Black
183k
1y
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
As seeing boom in american stock so i am expecting greater figure
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
217,000!!!
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
krafa63 is the winner with a 218,000 guess... congratulations!
1y
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
Congratulate to crafa63
1y
krafa63 krafa63
Thanks.

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