Article / 06 June 2014 at 8:18 GMT

Nonfarm payrolls: Let's have your estimates for May!

Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark

By Mads Koefoed

Attention Traders!

It's that time of the month again, when market participants around the world gather for just-for-fun guessing games of the monthly US nonfarm payrolls number.
 
The US employment statistic is, of course, an important monthly data print from which investment and policy decisions are in part derived.
 
Make your estimate by posting a comment below. The closest estimate wins a TradingFloor.com branded prize.
 
Once the number is released at 12:30 GMT, it will be updated for you to see on this post. The number will also appear in the financial calendar where historic data is also available.
 
Join the competition: You can find our Saxo Bank preview here, but what do you think? Let us know in the comment section and join the competition.
06 June
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
I'll get the ball rolling with a 200,000 prediction, What do you think?
06 June
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Note that the Bloomberg consensus estimate is 215,000 with a high of 350,000 and a low of 110,000.
06 June
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
227k
06 June
Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
260K
06 June
Dan Larsen Dan Larsen
280k
06 June
Gyula Szathmary Gyula Szathmary
199k, let's see!
06 June
Owen Thomas Owen  Thomas
261K. I just want to beat Peter Garnry...
06 June
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
293k
06 June
Johann Mare Johann Mare
288k
06 June
John J Hardy John J Hardy
What's with all of the optimists?
06 June
marcovitz marcovitz
185k
06 June
Teis Knuthsen Teis Knuthsen
My daughters birthday today 6/6/2002 so lets make it 206!
06 June
Owen Thomas Owen  Thomas
It's Friday, John Hardy.
06 June
iMemon iMemon
195
06 June
triantafx triantafx
190k
06 June
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
@John J Hardy Complacency!? And it's Friday
06 June
Dora Szucs Dora Szucs
240k
06 June
cvp2010 cvp2010
110k
06 June
tk1303 tk1303
205k
06 June
Vladlen Golubtsov Vladlen Golubtsov
295k
06 June
krafa63 krafa63
218K
06 June
keekko keekko
145k
06 June
GPAR GPAR
187K
06 June
Nacc Nacc
225k
06 June
Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
a steady 192,000
06 June
Paul168 Paul168
294k
06 June
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
I fired up the random number generator here at FuturesTechs and it tells me to expect a number of 208,000.

Have a good one and hopefully my "Do's and Don'ts" Video offers some wisdom! https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/the-dos-and-donts-of-trading-on-nfp-day-771375
06 June
Simon Fasdal Simon Fasdal
310K
06 June
andols andols
125k
06 June
malik malik
213k
06 June
John J Hardy John J Hardy
+159k some day, we'll need to remember to include the sign
06 June
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
We now have 28 estimates with a median of 211,000 (close to the Bloomberg consensus of 215,000). We have a high of 310,000 (Simon Fasdal) and a low of 110,000 (cvp2010). Keep them coming!
06 June
cantalupe cantalupe
254k after one revision
06 June
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
Nice skew ;)
06 June
fxtime fxtime
256k
06 June
Dr Chris Dr Chris
175K
06 June
bvlaerhoven bvlaerhoven
222k
06 June
fezso98 fezso98
199k
06 June
Hrnielsen Hrnielsen
209k
06 June
DudetteUK DudetteUK
187K
06 June
Dani Biru Dani Biru
250K
06 June
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
181000.
06 June
Serge Berger Serge Berger
I just rolled into the office here in New York. On the way to work, the infamous guy selling me the bagel told me 175k is the number. So that's what I shall go with. Thanks Joey
06 June
CRosenlov CRosenlov
245K
06 June
Vaquero93 Vaquero93
193K
06 June
Aijaz Forex Aijaz Forex
179K
06 June
luck luck
221k
06 June
santosh13 santosh13
228
06 June
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
We have 43 estimates now with a median of 208,000. 53 minutes to go until NFP is released.
06 June
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
300K
06 June
FXSergeibell FXSergeibell
197K
06 June
Simon Kjaer Simon Kjaer
186k
06 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
308K- go big or go home :)
06 June
sazam sazam
328K
06 June
falcao falcao
201k
06 June
Augustin Doittau Augustin Doittau
204k
06 June
Joseph Ferreria Joseph Ferreria
170k but it wont matter
06 June
jameelakhtar jameelakhtar
263K
06 June
Karsten Henriksen Karsten Henriksen
178K
06 June
Brian Treacy Brian Treacy
233k
06 June
gcs gcs
198
06 June
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
So the Median is bang on the number that www.random.org gave me this morning!! Nice.

Serge, I like your style!
06 June
gcs gcs
198k
06 June
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
With 13 minutes to go we have 58 estimates with a median of 205,000, 10,000 below Bloomberg's consensus estimate.
06 June
Jens_Black Jens_Black
183k
06 June
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
As seeing boom in american stock so i am expecting greater figure
06 June
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
217,000!!!
06 June
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
krafa63 is the winner with a 218,000 guess... congratulations!
06 June
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
Congratulate to crafa63
06 June
krafa63 krafa63
Thanks.

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