Article / 06 September 2013 at 4:55 GMT

Non-farm payrolls: August data competition

Trader / TheSteadyTrader.com
United States

Attention Traders!

It's that time of the month again, when market participants around the world gather for just-for-fun guessing games of the monthy US non-farm payrolls number. The US employment statistic is, of course, an important monthly data print that investment and policy decisions are in part derived from.

So, shake off the summer cobwebs and help us nail down the August non-farm payrolls! Make your estimate by posting a comment below. The closest estimate wins a TradingFloor.com branded prize.

Click here for the rules of the competition.

Once the number is released at 14:30 CET, it will be updated for you to see on this post. The number will also appear in the financial calendar where historic data is also available.  

US employment to accelerate
Saxo Bank expects non-farm payrolls to show an increase of 190,000 in August following July's below-average print of 162,000. Consensus expects 180,000 and an unchanged unemployment rate of 7.4 percent. For an analysis of the US job situation, see Mads Koefoed's non-farm payrolls preview: US employment to accelerate.

1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Let the games begin... 190,000!

(Note: no change in Bloomberg consensus since yesterday. Still 180,000).
1y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
200 000
1y
anpremar anpremar
191,000
1y
Arturo Arturo
185,000
1y
United Overseas United Overseas
255 whited)
1y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
Happy NFP Friday! Let's get this started. 175,000 is Bloomberg Consensus, with the range from 150,000 to 234,000. Yours truly guesses 195,000. What's your guess?
1y
andols andols
225k
1y
marcovitz marcovitz
194k
1y
andreikaf andreikaf
168k
1y
leesmith69 leesmith69
219K
1y
kishore kishore
200+
1y
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
186k it is....
1y
Humphrey Humphrey
197k
1y
Gyula Szathmary Gyula Szathmary
Im going with 185k this month!
1y
kishore kishore
210
1y
liberty liberty
176
1y
goldfinger goldfinger
$ negative John? I'm going for 197k
1y
anitafx anitafx
161k
1y
sauliukas sauliukas
178k
1y
dc3984 dc3984
207k
1y
smacksman smacksman
'In for a penny; in for a pound' - 168k
1y
John Dory John Dory
203K
1y
Dr Chris Dr Chris
215k
1y
fxtime fxtime
172k
1y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
Great hustle by everyone thus far. A little over 90 minutes to go until the 'truth' hits the wire
1y
haytch haytch
120K
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Thanks anpremar and Real Profit. I can now only win by getting it exactly right (190,000) :-)
1y
BBeezee BBeezee
190K
1y
Jim88 Jim88
180K
1y
Dan Larsen Dan Larsen
140k
1y
nineveh nineveh
204K
1y
Doc' Doc'
183k
1y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
Mads Koefoed gets tough love from anpremar and Real Profit by boxing-in his guess. Welcome to the real world, welcome to the ruthlessness of the monthly NFP guessing game.
1y
Diti Diti
196k
1y
urielac urielac
127k
1y
BBeezee BBeezee
Any Tip for trading on NFP ?
1y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
I am seeing lots of clustering in the guesses, but 255k is the highest guess thus far. Anyone willing to top this?
1y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
236K is my guess.
1y
BBeezee BBeezee
Gold Could be1347 ...
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
At the moment the median TradingFloor.com prediction is 185 (average: 184). The Bloomberg consensus estimate is still 180.
1y
bvlaerhoven bvlaerhoven
nice graph
1y
dumitriu dumitriu
178K
1y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
We will close the competition at 2:25 PM ET. Another 15 minutes left to toss in your guesses, folks. Go wild!
1y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
US equity futures are up six points or 0.33% ahead of the number right this minute...
1y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
10 minutes to go....until our guessing game closes at 2.25pm CET
1y
lahla lahla
188k
1y
fezso98 fezso98
151k
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Up to and including fezso98...

TradingFloor.com vs. Bloomberg
1y
Offpiste Offpiste
183k
1y
Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
E-mini futures have been pushed higher ahead of NFP figures...expectations are rising.
1y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
NFP Competition CLOSED. May the best guess win! Drum Roll please....
1y
Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
E-mini reaction is negative
1y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
169,000 is the number
1y
Serge Berger Serge Berger
From a trading perspective, allow me to remind that the first move post the news is often the wrong move. Wait for a truer tone to emerge by not jumping the gun
1y
Yvette Roper Yvette Roper
And the winner is Brian Treacy. Bullseye! 169,000 exactly. Congratulations.
Thanks for signing up to the TradingFloor.com community today.
We will contact you regarding your prize.
1y
John J Hardy John J Hardy
I would have won if we had included revisions !! :o)
(-58k on revision makes for a net of 111k ... oh well.)
1y
Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
If only it had been 44,000 more......
1y
United Overseas United Overseas
then in force SPX 1670?
1y
Maria T Salgado Maria T Salgado
Here is our top trader ranking! Once again congratulations Brian Treacy for hitting the number on the head!
1y
Brian Treacy Brian Treacy
Thank you

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Show latest activity
Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail