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Article / 06 September 2013 at 4:55 GMT

Non-farm payrolls: August data competition

Serge Berger Serge Berger
Trader / TheSteadyTrader.com
United States

Attention Traders!

It's that time of the month again, when market participants around the world gather for just-for-fun guessing games of the monthy US non-farm payrolls number. The US employment statistic is, of course, an important monthly data print that investment and policy decisions are in part derived from.

So, shake off the summer cobwebs and help us nail down the August non-farm payrolls! Make your estimate by posting a comment below. The closest estimate wins a TradingFloor.com branded prize.

Click here for the rules of the competition.

Once the number is released at 14:30 CET, it will be updated for you to see on this post. The number will also appear in the financial calendar where historic data is also available.  

US employment to accelerate
Saxo Bank expects non-farm payrolls to show an increase of 190,000 in August following July's below-average print of 162,000. Consensus expects 180,000 and an unchanged unemployment rate of 7.4 percent. For an analysis of the US job situation, see Mads Koefoed's non-farm payrolls preview: US employment to accelerate.

06 September
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Let the games begin... 190,000!

(Note: no change in Bloomberg consensus since yesterday. Still 180,000).
06 September
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
200 000
06 September
anpremar anpremar
191,000
06 September
Tobias Mortensen Tobias Mortensen
181.000
06 September
Arturo Arturo
185,000
06 September
United Overseas United Overseas
255 whited)
06 September
Serge Berger Serge Berger
Happy NFP Friday! Let's get this started. 175,000 is Bloomberg Consensus, with the range from 150,000 to 234,000. Yours truly guesses 195,000. What's your guess?
06 September
tradingalkemisten tradingalkemisten
201000
06 September
andols andols
225k
06 September
marcovitz marcovitz
194k
06 September
bvlaerhoven bvlaerhoven
176k
06 September
Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
133k
06 September
Teis Knuthsen Teis Knuthsen
202k
06 September
andreikaf andreikaf
168k
06 September
leesmith69 leesmith69
219K
06 September
Johann Mare Johann Mare
184k
06 September
Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
230k
06 September
kishore kishore
200+
06 September
Peter Margetiny Peter Margetiny
189k
06 September
Yusuf Yassin Yusuf Yassin
175k
06 September
Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
213k
06 September
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
186k it is....
06 September
Humphrey Humphrey
197k
06 September
Gyula Szathmary Gyula Szathmary
Im going with 185k this month!
06 September
RedValentino RedValentino
222k
06 September
kishore kishore
210
06 September
liberty liberty
176
06 September
John J Hardy John J Hardy
119k
06 September
goldfinger goldfinger
$ negative John? I'm going for 197k
06 September
anitafx anitafx
161k
06 September
Simo Dani Eric Biru Simo Dani Eric Biru
182.000
06 September
sauliukas sauliukas
178k
06 September
dc3984 dc3984
207k
06 September
smacksman smacksman
'In for a penny; in for a pound' - 168k
06 September
John Dory John Dory
203K
06 September
Saurabh Misra Saurabh Misra
154k
06 September
Piotr Baron Piotr Baron
157k
06 September
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
164k
06 September
Dr Chris Dr Chris
215k
06 September
fxtime fxtime
172k
06 September
Serge Berger Serge Berger
Great hustle by everyone thus far. A little over 90 minutes to go until the 'truth' hits the wire
06 September
haytch haytch
120K
06 September
Hugh Taggart Hugh Taggart
148K
06 September
Maria T Salgado Maria T Salgado
174K!
06 September
Real Profit Real Profit
189k
06 September
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Thanks anpremar and Real Profit. I can now only win by getting it exactly right (190,000) :-)
06 September
Felicity A Glover Felicity A Glover
162.5K
06 September
Ken Veksler Ken Veksler
167K
06 September
BBeezee BBeezee
190K
06 September
Chad Bushnell Chad Bushnell
162K
06 September
Jim88 Jim88
180K
06 September
Dan Larsen Dan Larsen
140k
06 September
nineveh nineveh
204K
06 September
Doc' Doc'
183k
06 September
Serge Berger Serge Berger
Mads Koefoed gets tough love from anpremar and Real Profit by boxing-in his guess. Welcome to the real world, welcome to the ruthlessness of the monthly NFP guessing game.
06 September
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
184000
06 September
Dimitrios Tamvakas Dimitrios Tamvakas
193k
06 September
Diti Diti
196k
06 September
urielac urielac
127k
06 September
BBeezee BBeezee
Any Tip for trading on NFP ?
06 September
Serge Berger Serge Berger
I am seeing lots of clustering in the guesses, but 255k is the highest guess thus far. Anyone willing to top this?
06 September
Yogesh Sinha Yogesh Sinha
156K
06 September
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
236K is my guess.
06 September
BBeezee BBeezee
Gold Could be1347 ...
06 September
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
At the moment the median TradingFloor.com prediction is 185 (average: 184). The Bloomberg consensus estimate is still 180.
06 September
bvlaerhoven bvlaerhoven
nice graph
06 September
dumitriu dumitriu
178K
06 September
Serge Berger Serge Berger
We will close the competition at 2:25 PM ET. Another 15 minutes left to toss in your guesses, folks. Go wild!
06 September
Serge Berger Serge Berger
US equity futures are up six points or 0.33% ahead of the number right this minute...
06 September
Timothy Stegeman Timothy Stegeman
193K
06 September
bvalexander bvalexander
236K
06 September
Serge Berger Serge Berger
10 minutes to go....until our guessing game closes at 2.25pm CET
06 September
lahla lahla
188k
06 September
fezso98 fezso98
151k
06 September
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Up to and including fezso98...

TradingFloor.com vs. Bloomberg
06 September
Offpiste Offpiste
183k
06 September
Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
E-mini futures have been pushed higher ahead of NFP figures...expectations are rising.
06 September
Brian Treacy Brian Treacy
169k
06 September
Serge Berger Serge Berger
NFP Competition CLOSED. May the best guess win! Drum Roll please....
06 September
United Overseas United Overseas
)))))
06 September
Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
E-mini reaction is negative
06 September
Serge Berger Serge Berger
169,000 is the number
06 September
Serge Berger Serge Berger
From a trading perspective, allow me to remind that the first move post the news is often the wrong move. Wait for a truer tone to emerge by not jumping the gun
06 September
Yvette Roper Yvette Roper
And the winner is Brian Treacy. Bullseye! 169,000 exactly. Congratulations.
Thanks for signing up to the TradingFloor.com community today.
We will contact you regarding your prize.
06 September
John J Hardy John J Hardy
I would have won if we had included revisions !! :o)
(-58k on revision makes for a net of 111k ... oh well.)
06 September
Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
If only it had been 44,000 more......
06 September
United Overseas United Overseas
then in force SPX 1670?
06 September
Maria T Salgado Maria T Salgado
Here is our top trader ranking! Once again congratulations Brian Treacy for hitting the number on the head!
06 September
Brian Treacy Brian Treacy
Thank you

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