Article / 02 May 2014 at 8:39 GMT

Non-farm payrolls: April data competition

Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark

Attention Traders!

It's that time of the month again, when market participants around the world gather for just-for-fun guessing games of the monthly US non-farm payrolls number. The US employment statistic is, of course, an important monthly data print from which investment and policy decisions are in part derived.

Make your estimate by posting a comment below. The closest estimate wins a TradingFloor.com branded prize.

Once the number is released at 14:30 CET, it will be updated for you to see on this post. The number will also appear in the financial calendar where historic data is also available.


Join the competition: You can find our Saxo Bank preview here... but what do you think? Let us know in the comment section and join the competition.


1y
CRosenlov CRosenlov
200 000
1y
Teis Knuthsen Teis Knuthsen
250K. Snow's over!
1y
GPAR GPAR
252K
1y
martim martim
230k
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
People are optimistic today... excellent.. Keep them coming!
1y
keekko keekko
210k
1y
JJ123 JJ123
187K
1y
Nacc Nacc
235k
1y
Dora Szucs Dora Szucs
206K
1y
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
229k
1y
Bramming1 Bramming1
256.000 dear Watson ;-)
1y
Paul168 Paul168
269K
1y
Dr Chris Dr Chris
240K
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
The first 20 predictions are in, and TradingFloor.com currently has a median estimate of 217,500 - exactly the same as the Bloomberg survey.
1y
mosen11 mosen11
225K
1y
Ken Veksler Ken Veksler
193k with pretty decent upward revisions
1y
nb86 nb86
243K
1y
ASE ASE
216K
1y
jopo16 jopo16
228K
1y
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
211K as average jobless claims increased for last month
1y
cnmcmurray cnmcmurray
248K
1y
malik malik
211k
1y
FX-Advisor FX-Advisor
170k
1y
fxtime fxtime
183K
1y
Angus Walker Angus Walker
220,000
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
We have reached 40 estimates and the median has declined a bit to 212,000. We have a low of 125,000 and a high of 269,000.
1y
John Mitchell John Mitchell
218.5K
1y
esantiw esantiw
235K
1y
cantalupe cantalupe
192k
1y
mackec mackec
156k
1y
WP Invest WP Invest
207k
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
We have reached 50 estimates. The median is 210,000, a tad below Bloomberg's 218,000.

Keep the estimates coming. The competition will stay open until five minutes before the release of the report (12:30 GMT).
1y
WP Invest WP Invest
Changing to 230, Sorry!
1y
belgaard belgaard
196k
1y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
I went to https://www.random.org/ and it gave me 269K but someone's got that already so I asked it again and it said 137K.
1y
Stefan Brylle Geisler Stefan Brylle Geisler
Haha, Clive, you'll prove a point if you actually come closest.
1y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Would be even weirder if it was 269K!
1y
RORY FANG RORY FANG
180,000
1y
Humphrey Humphrey
273k
1y
druster druster
208k
1y
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
Hi mads koefoed should not reach mean reach to 211 exact to my prediction ????
1y
fusint fusint
245k
1y
Maria T Salgado Maria T Salgado
201k! :)
1y
Jakob Jakob
110K
1y
lum lum
207k
1y
marcovitz marcovitz
198k
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
With five minutes to go we have 65 estimates with a median of 210,000, a low of 78,000 and a high of 273,000.
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
288,000!!!
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
and 38,000 in revisions
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Sorry, 36,000
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Unemployment rate: 6.3% from 6.7%
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Massive drop in participation rate to 62.8% from 63.2%, tied with October and December 2013 as lowest since mid-1970s.
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
The winner of the competition is Humphrey with an estimate of 273k. Congratulations!
1y
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
Humphrey Good Luck :)
1y
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Thank you all for participating... See you all next month!
1y
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
many many congratulations
1y
Simon Kjaer Simon Kjaer
Congrats Humphrey! I didn't win but I banked 54 pips. That's winning enough for me :)
1y
Humphrey Humphrey
Thanks, a lucky guess, buts its helping USD/JPY trade :)
1y
mcx master mcx master
1300+20 G+S NXT 2-3 WORKING SESSION..........

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