Article / 02 May 2014 at 8:39 GMT

Non-farm payrolls: April data competition

Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark

Attention Traders!

It's that time of the month again, when market participants around the world gather for just-for-fun guessing games of the monthly US non-farm payrolls number. The US employment statistic is, of course, an important monthly data print from which investment and policy decisions are in part derived.

Make your estimate by posting a comment below. The closest estimate wins a TradingFloor.com branded prize.

Once the number is released at 14:30 CET, it will be updated for you to see on this post. The number will also appear in the financial calendar where historic data is also available.


Join the competition: You can find our Saxo Bank preview here... but what do you think? Let us know in the comment section and join the competition.


02 May
CRosenlov CRosenlov
200 000
02 May
Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
225K
02 May
Teis Knuthsen Teis Knuthsen
250K. Snow's over!
02 May
GPAR GPAR
252K
02 May
martim martim
230k
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
People are optimistic today... excellent.. Keep them coming!
02 May
keekko keekko
210k
02 May
JJ123 JJ123
187K
02 May
Michael Kirk Michael Kirk
175K
02 May
Johann Mare Johann Mare
167k
02 May
Nacc Nacc
235k
02 May
Simon Kjaer Simon Kjaer
220k
02 May
bvlaerhoven bvlaerhoven
202k
02 May
Dora Szucs Dora Szucs
206K
02 May
Brian Fischer Brian Fischer
209k
02 May
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
229k
02 May
Bramming1 Bramming1
256.000 dear Watson ;-)
02 May
Paul168 Paul168
269K
02 May
Dr Chris Dr Chris
240K
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
The first 20 predictions are in, and TradingFloor.com currently has a median estimate of 217,500 - exactly the same as the Bloomberg survey.
02 May
Alex Timber Alex Timber
218
02 May
Alex Timber Alex Timber
218K
02 May
mosen11 mosen11
225K
02 May
Ken Veksler Ken Veksler
193k with pretty decent upward revisions
02 May
nb86 nb86
243K
02 May
ASE ASE
216K
02 May
jopo16 jopo16
228K
02 May
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
125K ........
02 May
John J Hardy John J Hardy
153k
02 May
Gyula Szathmary Gyula Szathmary
155k
02 May
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
211K as average jobless claims increased for last month
02 May
cnmcmurray cnmcmurray
248K
02 May
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
180k
02 May
malik malik
211k
02 May
Bettina Julian Bettina Julian
208000
02 May
FX-Advisor FX-Advisor
170k
02 May
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
263K
02 May
fxtime fxtime
183K
02 May
Angus Walker Angus Walker
220,000
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
We have reached 40 estimates and the median has declined a bit to 212,000. We have a low of 125,000 and a high of 269,000.
02 May
John Mitchell John Mitchell
218.5K
02 May
esantiw esantiw
235K
02 May
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
205k.
02 May
Brian Treacy Brian Treacy
190K
02 May
SmokeyJoe69 SmokeyJoe69
187k
02 May
cantalupe cantalupe
192k
02 May
mackec mackec
156k
02 May
WP Invest WP Invest
207k
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
We have reached 50 estimates. The median is 210,000, a tad below Bloomberg's 218,000.

Keep the estimates coming. The competition will stay open until five minutes before the release of the report (12:30 GMT).
02 May
WP Invest WP Invest
Changing to 230, Sorry!
02 May
belgaard belgaard
196k
02 May
Clare MacCarthy Clare MacCarthy
222,000
02 May
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
I went to https://www.random.org/ and it gave me 269K but someone's got that already so I asked it again and it said 137K.
02 May
Stefan Brylle Geisler Stefan Brylle Geisler
Haha, Clive, you'll prove a point if you actually come closest.
02 May
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Would be even weirder if it was 269K!
02 May
RORY FANG RORY FANG
180,000
02 May
Humphrey Humphrey
273k
02 May
druster druster
208k
02 May
glosstrading glosstrading
250k
02 May
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
Hi mads koefoed should not reach mean reach to 211 exact to my prediction ????
02 May
fusint fusint
245k
02 May
Maria T Salgado Maria T Salgado
201k! :)
02 May
Jakob Jakob
110K
02 May
lum lum
207k
02 May
marcovitz marcovitz
198k
02 May
Augustin Doittau Augustin Doittau
212k
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
With five minutes to go we have 65 estimates with a median of 210,000, a low of 78,000 and a high of 273,000.
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
288,000!!!
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
and 38,000 in revisions
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Sorry, 36,000
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Unemployment rate: 6.3% from 6.7%
02 May
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
Wow!
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Massive drop in participation rate to 62.8% from 63.2%, tied with October and December 2013 as lowest since mid-1970s.
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
The winner of the competition is Humphrey with an estimate of 273k. Congratulations!
02 May
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
Humphrey Good Luck :)
02 May
Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
Thank you all for participating... See you all next month!
02 May
Ghulam Muhiuddin Ghulam Muhiuddin
many many congratulations
02 May
Simon Kjaer Simon Kjaer
Congrats Humphrey! I didn't win but I banked 54 pips. That's winning enough for me :)
02 May
Humphrey Humphrey
Thanks, a lucky guess, buts its helping USD/JPY trade :)
02 May
mcx master mcx master
1300+20 G+S NXT 2-3 WORKING SESSION..........

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