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From the Floor: More risk ahead with White House 'rudderless'

#SaxoStrats
Equity markets have been hit hard by political risk emerging from the strange spectacle of Donald Trump's White House, and more risk lies ahead as those political worries are not about to vanish, Saxo Bank's chief economist Steen Jakobsen says.
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Article / 26 September 2016 at 2:28 GMT

Morning Report APAC: WTI crude breaks $45 after Saudi comments

APAC Sales Trading Desk / Saxo Capital Markets
Singapore

 

  • The oil price fell after pessimistic comments from Saudi Arabia
  • WTI crude plunged by 4%, to below $45 a barrel
  • The US stock market was taken down by the sharp slide in oil prices

By Saxo APAC Sales Trading


Economic data of the day (Singapore Time)
ec

 


Speeches

13:30: JPY – Bank of Japan's Haruhiko Kuroda makes a speech in Osaka

22:00: EUR – European Central Bank's Mario Draghi speaks at European Parliament in Brussels 

23:45: USD – US Federal Reserve’s Daniel Tarullo speaks on next steps in bank stress testing


Overnight news

Fed speech:  Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said, "Unemployment this low may well have the desirable effect of bringing more workers into the labour force but, unfortunately, only temporarily". 

"By 2019, I expect the unemployment rate to have declined below 4.5%. While I have a long track record of advocating for policy that supports robust labour market conditions, that is below the rate that I believe is sustainable in the long run.” 

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said he was more worried about raising rates too quickly than too slowly, largely because the central bank is better equipped to fight high inflation than low inflation. Kashkari also suggested that he is worried that the Fed may not be willing to allow inflation to overshoot its 2% target.

US: The Markit US Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.4 from 52.0 (Exp. 52.0). Softer rates of output and new business growth were the main factors weighing on the headline PMI.  

 


fr

 

















GBP is attempting to close below and break the psychological level of 1.3000 after Boris Johnson told Sky News that the UK plans to trigger the Article 50 process in early 2017 and suggested the country’s exit from the bloc could take less than two years.

USDCAD is still trading in the range made of the 100-day and 200-day moving average (1.2997-1.3049) and rallied on Friday following the drop in oil. Saudi Arabia said they didn’t expect any helpful decision made at the Opec meeting in Algeria.

NZDUSD fell 1% to reach its main support level at the 50-day moving average (0.7228). The move was mainly due to macro funds unwinding their AUDNZD short positions. The two-year IRS fell to a two-week low after the implied probability of a RBNZ cut in November rose to 74.7% from 69.8%. AUDNZD had a big rally over the past three sessions, trading close to the resistance level of 1.0550.

In emerging markets, USDMXN is settling at the all-time high just below 20.0000. The central bank will meet on September 30 for its rate decision. The market expects no change at 4.25% but with the big depreciation of the MXN over the past few weeks, we could see a surprise hike this week. Volatile moves in USDKRW and in Asian currencies in general, with no clear direction.


Foreign exchange movement


v

    
Very strong selling interest in short-term volatilities in USDJPY, with no more huge market event except the usual non-farm payrolls.

USDMXN volatilities are very bid with short-term vols up to 2 months trading above 18, up 5 volatilities since the start of the month. The risk reversals are also extremely bid for the topside. The US election date is trading at 80 vols (equivalent of a more than 3% move for that US election date).


r

     
Treasuries traded in a tight range as the US 10-year yields remained flat on Friday at 1.618%, while US 2-year yields fell 1.6 basis points.

10-year US Treasuries could see yields at 1.6% as a key support level for a case for a December hike.

Expectations of a rate hike in December also ended at 55% following the FOMC decision on Thursday night to stay put rates.



Commodities 

 

c
 































 



e

 

















The US stock market was taken down by a sharp slide in oil prices, and the momentum of Wednesday’s post-Fed rally began to wane. The S&P 500 retreated 0.6% to 2,164.69, led by losses in energy and tech, which lost 1.3% and 1% respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back 0.7% to 18,261.45. The Nasdaq Composite also dropped 0.6%, to 5,305.75.

Twitter Inc. spiked up by 21.4% after sources said the company had received expressions of interest from several technology or media companies, including Google and Salesforce.com, and may receive a formal bid shortly. 

Bloomberg reported that options exchange operator CBOE Holdings Inc. is in talks to buy Bats Global Markets Inc., the No. 2 US stock exchange operator by volume. Bats Global Markets Inc. jumped up by 19.9%. 

European stocks gave away half of Thursday’s rally as a reading on Eurozone economic activity came out weaker than expected. The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 0.7% to 345.34 while the banking index sank 1.5%. In London the FTSE 100 inched down slightly, however it still managed to complete its best week in almost three months. 

Danish drug maker Lundbeck slumped 15.3% after its highly anticipated idalopirdine Alzheimer's drug failed in a late-stage study.


Asia-Pacific equities

Hong Kong

Analyst ratings:

  •  China Resources Gas (1193 HK): Cut to outperform at Daiwa 
  •  Singyes Solar (750 HK): Raised to buy at Goldman 

Preview: 

  • China Cinda (1359): Issuing $3.2bn of 4.45% offshore preference shares 
  • China Gas (384): To earn 20% of gross profit from value-added services 
  • Chalco (3668) To be privatised at a prem of 33%. Resumes today 
  • CKI (1038): May see antitrust issues on National Grid deal 
  • CRGas (1193): Said to bid for National Grid arm stake 
  • Nanjing Panda (553): Says controlling holder planning asset injection 
  • Phoenix TV: Plans to invest HK$2.4bn in free channels: RTHK 
  • Wanda (3699): Co. to invest another 10bn yuan in Hefei Wanda City project 
  • HSBC (5) Buyback of 3.52m shares @ 573.28p 
  • CGN Power (1816) to acquire assets from China General Nuclear Power for 9.92bn yuan 
  • CKI (1038) may face regulatory hurdles if it bids for National Grid, since the co. already owns stakes in two networks in UK 
  • Guotai Junan (601211 CH) Board approves Hong Kong listing plan 

  Japan

Holidays


Analyst ratings: 

  •  ASKUL (2678 JP): Rated new sell at Haitong 
  •  Calsonic Kansei (7248 JP): Cut to neutral at Mizuho 
  •  Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Raised to overweight at JPMorgan 
  •  Kura (2695 JP): Raised to outperform at Iwai Cosmo 
  •  Nichirei (2871 JP): Raised to outperform at Daiwa 
  •  Nikon (7731 JP): Raised to buy at Citi 
  •  Olympus (7733 JP): Cut to neutral at Macquarie 
  •  Starts (8850 JP): Rated new buy at Ichiyoshi Research 
  •  Sumitomo Bakelite (4203 JP): Raised to overweight at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley 

Preview:

  •  Acom (8572 JP): Credit rating raised to BBB from BBB- at S&P; rating withdrawn at co. request 
  •  Aomori Bank (8342 JP): Lifts 1H net income forecast 56% to 2.8bn yen 
  •  Ministop (9946 JP): Prelim. 1H oper. profit 1.56bn yen vs co. forecast 2.56bn yen 
  •  Nitori (9843 JP): Sept. same-store sales down 1.2% y/y 
  •  Shimamura (8227 JP): Sept. same-store sales down 13.8% y/y 

 

Australia

Preview: 

  • Snakk Media (SNK NZ) annual meeting 
  • Augusta Capital (AUG NZ) buys 9.3% stake in NPT 
  • Emeco (EHL AU) says to merge with Orionstone and Andy’s Earthmovers; announces recapitalisation plan 
  • Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) CEO says company and Vale remain committed to JV plan 


Source: CIMB / Bloomberg


oi

 Saudi Arabia said it expected no change in output quotas at the Opec meeting. Photo: iStock

 

 

– Edited by Susan McDonald


This report was compiled by the Saxo APAC Sales trading team in Singapore – the home of social trading. Follow the team on @SaxoStrats or post your comment below to engage with Saxo Bank's social trading platform. Follow us on @SaxoStrats on Twitter

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