Article / 21 September 2016 at 1:53 GMT

Morning Report APAC: Oil up but everything else on hold

APAC Sales Trading Desk / Saxo Capital Markets


  • Asian stocks and JPY at one-week highs ahead of central bank decisions
  • JPY steady versus the greenback as traders awaited BoJ policy statement
  • Futures indicating a 22% chance of an interest-rate hike from the Fed
  • Oil moved up to $45/b on prospects major producers will agree to cap output

By Saxo APAC Sales Trading



-      BoJá governor Kuroda holds post BoJ press conference at 1430 SG/HK time
-      Federal Reserve Bank press conference kicks off around 0200 SG/HK time.
Overnight news

US: After the strong NAHB housing data the previous day, yesterday’s housing starts number saw a surprise to the downside with a -5.8% contraction month on month, much more than the -1.7% expected. Building permits also missed and contracted last month by -0.4%, painting an overall mixed US housing picture over the past 48 hours.
Germany’s PPI contracted again on a year on year basis by -1.6%. This data has contracted every month since July of 2013. It’s little wonder the European Central Bank is struggling to manage higher inflation expectations.
Out this morning Japanese trade data was dire, with exports falling -9.6% year-on-year  against -4.7% expected. Prior month was -14%, so this data is a slight improvement but still woeful. Imports declined by -17.3% up from -24.7% year on year prior.  


Forex markets traded in tight ranges overnight waiting for the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve Bank meetings ahead today. USDJPY in a 50 point range for the session.

was the exception, falling from 1.3065 to a low of 1.2947  after some harsh headlines from the EU regarding terms of Brexit.

These included: ''Zero Chance of Having Brexit Cake and Eating it'' and ''Zero Chance to Split Trade, Free-Movement in Brexit''. These comments coming from the Czech Brexit negotiator.

Emerging markets were also quiet with a slight bid yesterday, price action will be dictated by the twin central bank meetings today.

Foreign exchange movements

Volatilities have remained in a holding pattern since Monday as the market awaits today's central bank outcomes.

We continue to see some buyers of US election dates, most notably against the USDMXN. Yesterday, there was some USDCNH Vega selling seen in the market.
US Treasury yields fell overnight and the curve flattened as investors braced themselves for BoJ and Fed meetings.

BoJ monetary-policy decisions: 14 out of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a rate cut from -0.1%; estimates ranged from -0.2% to -0.4%, at least nine saw an increase in monetary base target and at least 7 forecast an increase in Japanese government bond purchases.





All three major US exchanges were quiet with thin trading volume ahead of the two important central bank meetings. The Dow Jones industrial index traded 9.79 points higher to 18,129.96 while the S&P 500 traded closed a mere 0.64 point higher to 2139.76.
European equities were predominantly lower with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.27 to 341.00. The London FTSE 100 closed higher to 6,830.79 or 0.25% higher, but the CAC 40 Index closed 5.59 points lower to 4,388.60.

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT:xnas) extended its surge from Monday after its approval related to its Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) treatment, Eteplirsen, was approved by the US FDA. The Stock has gained more than 80% after Monday's surged.

Allergan targets Tobira Therapeutics (TBRT:xnys), a liver disease drugs maker, in an acquisition deal worth $1.65 billion. The stock Flew from $4.71 to $38.91, up 721% on Tuesday.

Asia-Pacific stocks

China highlights
- BOC H.K. (2388 HK): Said to cut mortgage rates amid competition: Sing Tao
- North China Pharma (600812 CH): Chinese vitamin C makers win dismissal of $147m judgment
- Vitop Group (1178 HK): Sees higher level of loss versus last year
Japan highlights
- Hitachi Kokusai 6756 JP): To keep payout ratio at 30% or higher: Nikkei
- Mitsubishi Heavy (7011): Hopes to see Edison arbitration resolved by March
- NTT Data (6098 JP): To post 13b yen gain from sale of Recruit stake: Nikkei
Southeast Asia highlights
- Ayala (AC PM): Sells stake in Vietnam infrastructure co. to partner
- Hoang Anh Gia Lai (HNG VN): Sells sugar unit to Thanh Thanh Cong for 2.2t dong: Infonet
- Indosat (ISAT IJ): Ooredoo said to explore stake sale in Indonesian unit Indosat.

Information sources: Bloomberg

 Waiting for guidance: Globally markets are on ice as they await decisions
from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve: Photo: iStock

– Edited by Adam Courtenay

This report was compiled by the Saxo APAC Sales trading team in Singapore – the home of social trading. Follow the team on @SaxoStrats or post your comment below to engage with Saxo Bank's social trading platform. Follow us on @SaxoStrats on Twitter

All material contained herein is provided for your general information. The information and commentaries are not intended to be and do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice or recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Saxo Capital Markets Pte. Ltd. (“SCM SG”). Any expression of opinion (which may be subject to change without notice) is personal to the presenter and/or author; they do not reflect the view or opinion of SCM SG or its affiliates, neither do they constitute an endorsement of SCM SG’s view or analysis of the same.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. SCM SG does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment based on any commentaries or information provided here.
For further information, please click here.  

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ("Saxo Capital Markets") is a licensed subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, an online trading and investment specialist. Saxo Capital Markets serves as the APAC headquarters and holds a capital markets services licence under the Monetary Authority of Singapore; and a commodity broker licence issued by the International Enterprise Singapore. Clients can trade Forex, CFDs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives via SaxoWebTrader and SaxoTrader, the leading multi-asset online trading platforms.
Trading risks are magnified by leverage - losses can exceed your deposits. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks. You should carefully consider whether trading in leveraged products is appropriate for you based on your financial circumstances. Please consider our Risk Warning and General Business Terms before trading with us. Please see full General Disclaimer.

Thousands of serious traders receive free news and analysis from Saxo Capital Markets each day. Saxo Capital Markets never sends these emails unsolicited; they are sent following acceptance of your membership and subscription request by Saxo Capital Markets at If you do not wish to receive any emails from Saxo Capital Markets in the future, please reply to this email with the word "UNSUBSCRIBE" in the subject header.

Copyright | Disclaimer | Risk Warning | Privacy Policy | Contact Us
Samsung Hub | 3 Church Street | # 30-01 | Singapore 049483
Company No. 200601141M


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail