Video

Kay Van-Petersen
In this webcast, Saxo’s Asia Pacific team discuss this week’s important macro issues in trading and investment including Fed hike, Bitcoin futures and, Santa melt-up.
Article / Thursday at 7:54 GMT

Morning Markets: USD rebounds, oil falls, Bitcoin blasts past $14,000

Senior Editor / Saxo Bank
Denmark

chart

 

Watchlist

  • Australia: International trade (already published)
  • Germany: industrial production index (0700 GMT)
  • Switzerland: Swiss National Bank foreign currency reserves (0800 GMT)
  • US: Initial jobless claims (1330 GMT)
  • Japan: Second preliminary quarterly GDP estimate (2350 GMT)
  • Japan: Balance of payments (2350 GMT)


The US dollar has shaken off its latest weakness that was partly inspired by President Trump's decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and this morning finds the greenback broadly higher on a fresh wave of optimism that the US tax reform package will soon be in place.

Oil meanwhile, slumped to a two-month low as it slid almost 3% on news of an unexpected  increase in US refined oil inventories indicated that demand may be slowing.


But the standard performer was Bitcoin as the speculators' darling put in another astonishing display and surged from around $12,000 past $14,000 – a rise of over 16% in less than 24 hours. This comes just days before the first Bitcoin futures are due to be launched, although today's FT is running a story saying major banks have begun a fightback on this over worries about insufficient regulation.


Brexit continues to be a worry, with the latest development being that Michel Barnier, the EU chief negotiator, has given the UK 48 hours to find a solution to the Irish border issue. If the UK fails, the negotiations will stall completely.


In equities, stocks made robust gains in some Asian markets today, in a welcome sign of restored investor confidence. Benchmarks indices headed higher in Tokyo and Sydney. But the revival was patchy, with falls in Seoul and Shanghai. Meanwhile Friday's nonfarm payrolls report from the US will attract plenty of market scrutiny.

Market signals

Asian session

  • Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will impact the US outlook, interest rates and FX markets
  • The Fed may hike rates next week; China's PBoC is unlikely to follow suit: Bloomberg
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 rebounded; it closed up 1.45% at 22,498.03
  • Japan's labour shortage spells opportunity for robots, automation startups: Bloomberg
  • China's workforce is also shrinking, due to its now abandoned one-child policy
  • Australia's trade surplus fell to $A105 mln in October, from $1.6 bn surplus in September
  • The S&P/ASX200 closed up 0.54% at 5,977.70, with gains for consumer staples, banks
  • Shares in top miner Rio Tinto rose by 0.92%, defying gloom over falling iron ore prices
  • ASX-listed retailers retreated,on jitters about the e-commerce threat posed by Amazon
  • Trump's decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem may spark a backlash
  • The cryptocurrency Bitcoin soared past $14,000
  • India will have third largest economy by 2018: Japan Centre for Economic Research

Forex ahead

  • The US dollar edged higher against the yen; it was worth ¥112.5300 at 0603 GMT
  • AUD retreated on the disappointing trade data; it was worth 0.7544 at 0602 GMT
  • Morgan Stanley predicts that the Aussie dollar will tumble to just 0.67 by Q1, 2019
  • State Street says the surging Malaysian ringgit looks overbought


In opinion


Staples save the day

Gains for consumer staples and banks helped keep the S&P/ASX200 in positive territory, despite falls in mining and energy, says Saxo Capital Markets Australia

Revival hopes

Stocks headed higher today in Japan and Australia, but the revival was patchy across Asia, with equities falling in Shanghai and Seoul, says Saxo APAC Sales Trading

Fed magicians

A 25 basis point hike is virtually "baked in" and certain next week, so the Fed will have to pull a rabbit out of a hat to have any impact on forex markets, says Max McKegg


nnn
Ageing populations and shrinking workforces in Japan (above) and China pose challenges, but spell opportunity for tech startups that find novel ways to replace humans. Photo: Shutterstock

Morning Markets goes out on the TradingFloor platform at 0800 GMT, Monday to Friday.
Click here
to make sure you're up to date with the latest developments.

Relevant articles for you

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail