Ole Hansen
The Russian and Saudi energy ministers met ahead of Opec’s late-November deal, but Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen says the future for oil remains cloudy.
Article / 01 September 2016 at 7:00 GMT

Morning Markets: US delivers the goods, dollar rally continues

Editor / Saxo Bank

Morning Markets: Prices


  • Spain: Manufacturing PMI (0715 GMT) 
  • US: Initial Jobless Claims (1230 GMT) 
  • US: ISM Manufacturing Index (1400 GMT) 

Today's European session opens in the wake of a positive ADP jobs release from the US yesterday – 177,000 versus 175,000 expected – and a broad selloff in crude oil that is weighing on sentiment. 

WTI crude tumbled from a Wednesday high of $46.40/barrel to below $44.50 overnight. 

Today's data calendar features Spanish manufacturing PMI numbers for August as well as US initial jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing index; both prints are expected to be scrutinised heavily ahead of tomorrow's key nonfarm payrolls release. 

The Asian equities session was largely flat following a soft open and the US dollar continues to gain ground in the major pairs, most notably EURUSD and USDJPY. 

The dominant narrative in world markets continues to be the US' potential ability to hike rates, whether at the September 20-21 Federal Open Market Committee meeting or sometime after, with the possibility of a rate hike indicating the first step out of continuous policy easing by a major developed economy in some time.

Market signals

Asian session

  • New Zealand's quarterly overseas trade index fell 2.1%; minus 1.4% was expected
  • Australia's AIG manufacturing index dropped by 9.5 points to 46.9 points in August 
  • Aussie business investment fell by 5.4% in the June quarter, below forecasts of a 4% fall
  • Japan's capital spending rose 3.1% over the quarter; 5.6% was expected
  • Activity in China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded 
  • The official PMI rose to 50.4 in August, compared with the previous month's 49.9 
  • The strong China data boosted the AUD as well as most industrial metals 
  • Copper rose 0.5% and nickel gained 1% after the data was released

Forex ahead

  • The Aussie rose to $0.7530 on a surprise expansion in China's manufacturing sector
  • Brazil's real rose 0.3% after Dilma Rousseff's impeachment
  • The NZD was the only G10 currency to end August on a positive note
  • In Asian trade, JPY strengthened 0.2% to 103.25 per dollar
  • USD continues to gain ground versus the euro and yen
  • CAD sells off on pronounced tumble in WTI crude oil

From the Floor

Rate move.The odds are higher for a Fed move in rates in the near term than is priced in”, says Hardy.

$500m sting.Tesla will be forced to pay out $500 million which means it will be looking for additional capital... you should definitely be short Tesla”, says Garnry. 

Get all the latest from Saxo Bank's trading floors in From the Floor, within the hour.

In opinion

If today’s manufacturing PMI numbers for Spain move closer to 50, the news will unleash fresh speculation that the country's recovery is vulnerable, writes James Picerno.

September perfection
A Federal Reserve rate hike in September equates to 'timing perfection' as long as the nonfarm payrolls hold up. Kay Van-Petersen outlines the reasons why it makes sense.

Asian slippage
Markets in Asia opened mostly lower on Thursday, with sentiment weighed by sharp overnight declines in oil prices, says Singapore's Saxo trading team.

Liquidity at risk?

The US Securities and Exchange Commissionis introducing new money market rules and one byproduct might very well be a liquidity risk, writes Steen Jakobsen.

Houston, texas

All systems go? The US data have not shaken off markets' expectations of a near-term 
rate hike, and the greenback is raking in the gains. Photo: iStock

Morning Markets goes out on the TradingFloor platform at 0700 GMT, Monday to Friday.
Click here
to make sure you're up to date with the latest developments.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail