Article / 05 October 2016 at 6:59 GMT

Morning Markets: Today might bring more good news for the UK

 

Watchlist

  • UK: PMI Services Index (0830 GMT)
  • US: ADP Employment Report (1215 GMT) 
  • US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (1400 GMT) 

Another day with a lot of focus on the UK. The pace of economic releases picks up today, including the September figures for the UK Services PMI. Econoday.com’s consensus forecast sees a dip to a modest growth reading of 52.0 vs. 52.9 previously. If the releases from earlier in the week are a guide, however, another upside surprise may be near. 

T
he International Monetary Fund yesterday raised its growth projection for Britain in 2016 to 1.8%, up slightly from the July estimate. In contrast to an array of pessimistic forecasts for the country following the June vote to leave the European Union, the IMF now expects that the UK will avoid a recession and post the strongest growth this year among the G7 nations.  

Meanwhile, the state of the US economy in September is in focus via the ADP Employment Report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. Analysts are anticipating that jobs growth will continue to cool at the end of the first quarter.

Economists are expecting that today’s ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will tick higher for September, rising to 52.9 from 51.4 previously, based on Econoday.com’s consensus forecast.

Market signals

Asian session

  • It is a bank holiday in China for Chinese National Day
  • Australia's services sector continued to weaken in September, albeit at a slower pace
  • The Ai Group’s Performance of Services Index rose to 48.9; it was 45 in August
  • The IMF downgraded US growth prospects for 2016 to 1.6%
  • It also trimmed its forecasts for Australia for 2017 to 2.7%
  • Gold had its biggest plunge in three years on fears of rising interest rates
  • NZ monthly commodity prices rose 5.1% in September; up from last month's 3.2%

Forex ahead

  • Sterling fell to a 31-year low against the US dollar
  • NZDUSD fell on news of a 3.2% decline in the GlobalDairyTrade index 

From the Floor

Greenback rallies. ”USD is very strong across the board,” says Hardy

XAU tumbles. “Gold is seeing its biggest plunge in three years,” says Hansen 

Get all the latest from Saxo Bank's trading floors in From the Floor, within the hour.

In opinion

1..2..3
September economic releases are in focus today with the UK Services PMI expected to dip slightly – although an upside surprise may be near, writes James Picerno.

Savage selloff
US rate concerns and a potential tapering of the ECB's stimulus had goldminers leading the Australian sharemarket lower at the open, says the team at Saxo Capital Markets (Australia)

Inflation, inflation
Both Aussie and Kiwi banks want their exchange rates to decline but it won’t happen until the yield gap closes, says Max McKegg

Gold shining less
The price for the precious metal fell below the key line of support at $1300/oz, notes Ole Hansen, Saxo's head of commodity strategy.

LVMH with first German acquisition
Buying Rimowa points at two possible soft strategic shifts of French luxury goods company Rimowa, writes Clemens Bomsdorf

Savage selloff
US rate concerns and a potential tapering of the ECB's stimulus had goldminers leading the Australian sharemarket lower at the open, says the team at Saxo Capital Markets (Australia).


Dorset beach (Photo: iStock)

 Three months after the Brexit, the storm at least for now is over 
and in the UK it is as calm as on a nice day at Dorset beach. Photo: iStock 

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05 October
Clemens Bomsdorf Clemens Bomsdorf
Strong macro data from the UK. But the GBP is weak (and GBPUSD went below 1.27 during the night): https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/saxo-on-brexit-may-clatters-sterling-to-fresh-31-year-low-8111411
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