Article / 08 November 2016 at 8:00 GMT

Morning Markets: Stocks up as America goes to the polls

Consulting editor / TradingFloor



  • China: Trade balance, imports and exports (published)
  • Germany: Industrial production (0700 GMT)
  • UK: Industrial production (0930 GMT)
  • Poland: Monetary policy meeting (1059 GMT)
  • Canada: Housing starts (1315 GMT)
  • US: Job openings (1500 GMT)
  • US: API Weekly statistical bulletin, incl. crude and gasoline stocks (2130 GMT)

Asia-Pacific stocks retreated from highs to end mixed on Tuesday after a strong start on the back of solid gains on Wall Street overnight. US equities gained as investors breathed easier on Monday after the FBI director issued a new statement on Sunday, saying the Bureau had not changed its view that Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton had not broken the law with her emails.

Commodities and the Mexican peso also rallied, while bonds and gold fell, on Monday on speculation that Clinton’s chances of a victory have risen in the final stretch. Gold recovered on Tuesday, however, in a sign that the election jitters have not vanished altogether.

A final Bloomberg Politics poll before the election put Clinton ahead of Trump, 44% to 41%, when third-party candidates are included, and also up by three points in a two-way contest.

The election results are expected during Wednesday morning trading in Asia, 

Market signals

Asian session

  • The overnight US rally spilled over into Asian markets as America prepares to vote
  • Nikkei, Kospi and ASX200 all opened higher before slipping in afternoon trade
  • NAB business conditions index fell 2 points to +6 in October
  • China's October exports fell 7.3% from last year; imports fell 1.4%
  • Both falls were worse than had been expected

Forex ahead

  • AUD is holding above 0.77 after being as high as 0.7729 overnight
  • USDJPY steadied around 104.45 after levels around 103 last week

From the Floor

USD potential. "If Clinton wins big, we will see the dollar up broadly, but mostly against the safe havens,” Hardy says. "If Clinton wins by a small margin and Trump doesn’t concede, we have two-way volatility.”

Stocks outlook. "If we get a Clinton victory, it is likely that we get a short-term positive reaction [in equities],” says Garnry.

Gold adjusts. ”We have started to see the market adjust to a Clinton win – that was seen in gold yesterday,” says Hansen.

Get all the latest from Saxo Bank's trading floors in From the Floor, within the hour.

In opinion

US job openings are moving at a rate of knots, but are they due for a slowdown, asks James Picerno.

America votes
As US voters finally get to have their say, the latest Bloomberg poll has the Democratic nominee ahead by three points, writes the team at Saxo APAC Sales Trading.

Bets on Clinton
An early rise in the ASX anticipated a Clinton victory, and a bump in key commodities didn't hurt either, writes the team at Saxo Capital Markets (Australia)

Emotional rollercoaster
Investor sentiment has been swinging in line with the polls, and the CBOE fear index reached pre-Brexit levels, writes Giorgio Stoev.


As US voters head to the polls today, markets have made their call. Photo: iStock

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