Article / 31 May 2016 at 7:00 GMT

Morning Markets: Stocks healthy ahead of US data

Head of Editorial Content / Saxo Bank

Morning Markets: Prices


  • Germany: Unemployment Report (0755 GMT)
  • US: Personal Income & Spending (1230 GMT) 
  • US: Consumer Confidence Indicator (1400 GMT)

Today's Asian session saw healthy risk appetite boost equities across the APAC region as Australian data came in ahead of expectations in terms of both exports and building approvals. Despite the positive climate, however, the benchmark Aussie index was held down by underperforming financials.

In commodities, coffee prices are on the rise due to severe droughts in Vietnam while crude oil prices remain at local highs; Brent crude is current trading just over the $50/barrel mark while WTI sits just shy of the psychologically important line.

The greenback was bid in the later Asian session, particularly versus the JPY but EURUSD saw some pullback as well. Today's US personal income and consumer confidence readings represent the first two crucial data releases in a major macro reporting week that culminates in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.

In Europe, the German unemployment release is also expected to impact the euro while the GBP spiked sharply higher overnight as Brexit fears continue to recede in the wake of polling data that appear to be suggesting a lead for the Remain side.

Market signals

Asian session

  • Shares headed higher in Tokyo; the Nikkei 225 rose by nearly 1% on a risk-on wave
  • Shares soared higher in China on hopes that China A-shares would join the MSCI
  • The Shanghai Composite was up by a healthy 3% at 0644 GMT
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 1.42% on the day
  • China’s largest private airline to pay $159m for a 13% stake in Virgin Australia
  • Korea's Kospi Composite was up 0.83%
  • India's S&P BSE Sensex was down 0.22%
  • Macquarie maintained its outperform on Qantas, saying it's the "cheapest airline globally"
  • Australian big four bank NAB launched a $750mln hybrid securities issue
  • Australia's exports made a 1.1% contribution to Q1 GDP versus 0.7% expected
  • Australian building approvals rose 3% in April; a 3% drop had been expected
  • Despite a lift from upbeat data, S&P/ASX200 was down 0.54%

Forex ahead

  • The US dollar gained ground against the yen; it was worth xxx
  • The Aussie soars nearly 1% following a boost from upbeat export data
  • EURUSD declining back towards local support around 1.1125
  • Sterling spikes north of 1.47 handle before retracing somewhat
  • USDCAD trading sideways as oil prices remain in a tight range

From the Floor

Let it rip.Everyone is waiting for the US, which gets back in today, to decide whether we go up or do. […] It feels like this market wants to rip on the equity side of things,” says Van-Petersen. 

Turning point.I think most macro indicators will surprise to the upside this week, showing that May is a turning point for the global economy,” says Garnry.

Get all the latest from Saxo Bank's trading floors in From the Floor, within the hour.

In opinion

1....2... 3
A solid rebound in US spending is on the cards, which is a good reason for expecting a similar boost in second-quarter economic activity, writes James Picerno

Data fears
Australian markets had few overnight leads to go on other than the wavering oil price and a drop in the iron ore price, writes the team at Saxo Capital Markets (Australia)

Harvard hawk

Fed chair Janet Yellen's speech at Harvard last Friday left investors expecting an imminent rate hike from the US central bank, writes Stephen Pope

Dollar resistance

The USD is bumping against local resisitance ahead of a major US data week that could determine the path of policy normalisation, says John J Hardy.

SPYing gains

The benchmark USS&P 500 index could be primed to push higher as markets look for a continuation of the upbeat US data trend, states Peter Garnry


Coffee drinkers worldwide will eventually feel the impact on prices of a severe drought in Vietnam that is pushing up coffee futures. Photo: iStock

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