Article / 04 October 2016 at 7:00 GMT

Morning Markets: RBA holds the line

Editor / Saxo Bank

Morning Markets: Prices


  • UK: Construction PMI (0830 GMT)
  • Brazil: Industrial Production (1200 GMT) 
With the pound nearing 30-year lows, investors are watching the UK closely as London navigates the Brexit negotiations; yesterday saw a selloff in GBP following prime minister Theresa May's Sunday comments that Article 50 will be triggered before the end of March 2017.

The US election polls remain close with markets starting to take the ostensible risk of a Trump presidency seriously. nevertheless, the USD gained ground overnight on strong manufacturing data and some hawkish comments from Cleveland Federal Reserve president Loretta Mester.

The first Reserve Bank of Asutralia meeting with incoming governor Lowe at the helm saw the bank leave rates unchanged, with the Aussie strengthening on both central banker comments and a firm building approvals print.

Crude oil fell overnight as traders continue the weigh the outcomes of the recent Opec freeze deal.

Market signals

Asian session

  • Chinese markets closed for bank holiday
  • The new governors of the RBA and RBI resided over their first policy meetings today
  • The RBA decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%
  • Australian building approvals fell 1.8% in August, better than market expectations
  • US manufacturing data and hawkish comments from the Fed strengthened USD
  • Yields on benchmark US Treasuries increased for a third day
  • Aussie 10-year bonds fell 1.1% from Friday’s close with yield surging to 2.08%
  • Crude oil fell 0.5% to $48.57/b in New York
  • Gold fell for a sixth day, its longest losing streak since August.
  • Asian shares started sluggishly but pushed higher in mid-session trading

Forex ahead

  • The USD strengthened for a sixth day versus the JPY, gaining 0.5% to 102.13
  • EURUSD was 0.1% lower at $1.1197
  • The AUD rose against the USD, hitting 0.7691 in early trading
  • GBPUSD fell as much as 0.2% to $1.2817, near July level of $1.2798

From the Floor

May’s pledge.The City is so important for the rest of the UK economy but if she follows through on not favouring it, there could be a lot of noise around UK banks,” says Garnry.

Gold slide.Gold is lower against the stronger dollar with Clinton advancing in the polls and a December hike still on the table,” says Hansen. 

Get all the latest from Saxo Bank's trading floors in From the Floor, within the hour.

In opinion

The UK's Construction PMI for September is forecast to remaining in contractionary territory, writes James Picerno

Carry me home

Bonds have enjoyed a strong year so far on the back of the QE, low-inflation environment, but markets remain volatile heading into Q4 writes Simon Fasdal in his fourth-quarter preview.

Follow the leader
Local shares follow Wall Street's lead to open down ahead of today's RBA rate decision, writes the team at Saxo Capital Markets (Australia).

Mixed markets
Asian markets opened mixed ahead of the RBA and RBI rate decisions today with the ASX200 down at the start while the Nikkei rose, writes Saxo's Singapore trading team


Incoming RBA governor Lowe's first meeting saw the central bank 
leave rates unchanged, boosting the AUD. Photo: iStock

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