Steen Jakobsen
The Bank of Japan has abandoned quantitative easing and the European Central Bank may taper its bond-buying programme, so what is the role of central banks in 2017, asks Saxo Bank’s chief economist Steen Jakobsen.
Article / 13 June 2016 at 6:59 GMT

Morning Markets: Nothing to fear but voters themselves

Editor / Saxo Bank

Morning Markets: Prices


  • UK: CB Leading Index (1330 GMT) 

As the Brexit referendum on June 23 draws ever-closer, investors and markets appear less and less certain that things will continue as they have been. In fact, new polling data combined with the overall confidence level that is tracked by the value of sterling are grim, with an increased number of market participants apparently bracing for impact.

The trend has seen riky assets tumble with equity indices across Asia sliding into the red. The safe-haven darling that is the JPY picked up further steam against the dollar in a sharp, one big figure rally this morning that left the USDPY hovering below 106.00 as of press time.  

Today's UK leading index release will likely sway sterling one way or another ahead of the June 23 ballot, but make no mistake: GBP is a Brexit trade and given the volatility that is likely to both accompany and follow the vote, Saxo Bank head of forex strategy John J Hardy advises playing the risk event with options – if at all.

Market signals

Asian session

  • At least 50 people were killed in the worst mass shooting in US history 
  • Asian stocks tumbled by the most in two months and GBP sank to an eight-week low
  • Anxiety over the international impact of the UK exiting the EU added to investor worries
  • The Japanese yen rose and sovereign debt rallied as investors piled into haven assets
  • Japan’s BIS Manufacturing Index fell in the last quarter to minus 11.1 from minus 7.9
  • China's foreign direct investment fell 1% in May from a year earlier to 56.77 billion yuan
  • Factory output grew 6% in May from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said
  • Trading resumed on China's stock exchanges today after an lengthy public holiday break
  • Asian stocks tumble from Shanghai to Tokyo

Forex ahead

  • EURUSD dumps fuel to travel below 1.13 Friday, move slightly retracing this morning
  • GBP now just shy of 1.42 as negative polls, Brexit fears mount
  • USDJPY drops one big figure to just south of 106.00 this morning
  • USDCAD continuing late-Friday rally

From the Floor

Down to the wire. "Brexit contagion is finally going global," says Hardy

Negative outlook. "Ugly sentiment continues in equities," says Garnry

Get all the latest from Saxo Bank's trading floors in From the Floor, within the hour.

In opinion

The UK's Leading Index has held steady of late and if this trend continues in today's April update, the economy could have a tailwind going into the Brexit vote, writes James Picerno

Swiss intervention?

The Swiss National Bank may need to intervene to stop the Swiss Franc getting too strong against the Euro, with obvious implications for EURCHF says Max McKegg

Flightless loonie

This week's anticipation of the FOMC interest rate decision and statement may make for dull FX trading until Wednesday afternoon, says Michael O'Neill.

Hold the cognac
Zero revenue visibility does not warrant Remy Cointreau's 20% valuation premium to global peers, states Peter Garnry.

Planning on holding sterling through the June 23 Brexit vote? Photo: iStock 

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