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Today's edition of the Saxo Morning Call features the SaxoStrats team discussing the continuing weakness of the US dollar as commodity prices recover ground and in the wake of key US equity indices hitting all-time highs Thursday.
Article / 26 March 2015 at 8:00 GMT

Morning Markets: Go Germany

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Watchlist

  • Germany: GfK consumer climate survey (0700 GMT)
  • France: GDP data (0745 GMT)
  • EU: Monetary developments in the euro area (M3) (0900 GMT)
  • Czech Republic: Interest rate decision (1200 GMT)
  • US: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims (1230 GMT)
  • US Services PMI (1345 GMT)
  • US: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1430 GMT)
  • Japan: CPI (Nation), CPI ex-food (Nation) (2330 GMT)
Another day with important macro data to be released. starting with an update on the mood in Germany’s consumer sector. It has just been released and surpassed expectations with a reading of 10 compared to 9.7 last and 9.8 expected.Will another positive update be able to push the DAX, recently in consolidation mode, even further? 

There’s also a range of US data to review on Thursday, including the weekly report on jobless claims and the flash estimate for the Services PMI in March. US equities were selling off as the US economy showed new cracks with much weaker-than-expected February US durable goods figure. 

The weak sentiment sparked the Nikkei and ASX200 to sell off by roughly 1.5%, while Chinese markets as so often went their own way currently up 0.6% on the day.

As in other recent data releases about Europe's largest economy, the trend for Gfk’s Consumer Climate Index has been positive. In the previous update, sentiment rose for the fifth straight month, reaching a 14-year high. Econoday.com’s consensus forecast sees the index rising again, up a bit to 9.8 from the 9.7. 

In the US the recent decline in jobless claims offers support for thinking that warmer weather will accompany a revival in growth. 


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Market Signals

Asian session
  • USD/JPY currently sits near session lows as the market jitters over news in The Gulf
  • EUR/JPY trades at 130.51 currently. 
  • NZD dropped through the 0.7600 figure against USD and remains below there now
  • AUD/USD found support at 0.7800 and the Antipodean cross trades at 1.0312 
  • AUD and NZD lost close to 2.0% respectively whilst JPY was the largest gainer in Asia
  • AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY traded to lows of 92.85 and 90.06 respectively 
  • CAD/JPY finds support above the 95.0 figure, after recent fundamental developments  
  • The Hang Seng Index remains largely flat whilst Topix and Nikkei lost close to 1.5%

Forex ahead
  • German GfK is interesting to watch for EURUSD
  • BoC Governor Poloz' speech at 1330 GMT will be important after recent CAD volatility 
  • Eurozone M3 data at 0900 GMT and UK retail sales figures could influence EURGBP 

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From the Floor
Yemen woes: “We have a big risk-off reaction to new Middle East geopolitical fears,” says Moltke-Leth
Aussie weakness: “The bears don’t have much of a case for AUDUSD,” says Hardy


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In opinion

Prepare for Mondayitis
Next Monday has the potential to be extremely messy if Athens does not deliver a coherent document outlining how it will make strides to reform its economy, says Stephen Pope.

Feeling confident
The Bundesbank says Germany is on track for strong growth in the first half of the year, and German consumer sentiment is also on the rise, writes James Picerno.

Frontrunner Dax
Germany's large cap index Dax has been rallying heavily since October. And it could continue to do so driven by the Fed and ECB's different policies, Serge Berger told Saxo TV.

Cocoa cooling
Cocoa demand is to remain depressed as a rebound in consumption will not kick in until late in 2015, says Stephen Pope.

Powerful Kraft
An acquisition of Heinz would turn Kraft into the third-largest food and beverage company in North America and create a real game changer in the global market, writes Martin O'Rourke.

Diversifying with Deutsche Post
Peter Garny looks at European stocks including Deutsche Post and Unilever, which could help diversify a portfolio.

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 — Compiled by Clemens Bomsdorf

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