Article / 29 November 2017 at 8:00 GMT

Morning Markets: A busy session for news and data

Senior Editor / Saxo Bank




  • EU: Business and Consumer surveys (1000 GMT)
  • Germany: Provisional CPI (1300 GMT)
  • US: CPI second estimate (1330 GMT)
  • US: Pending Home Sales Index (1500 GMT)
  • US: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (1530 GMT)

A busy session awaits as a day already jam-packed with important new data gets some added excitement from a clutch of geopolitical developments including what might be a breakthrough in the Brexit process and the latest rocket adventure by the North Korean regime.

First up, Brexit and news that the British government has agreed in principle to cover its liabilities surrounding its departure from the bloc. No final figure has been stated but it is understood that payments will be spread out over several years and that the final cost to the exchequer could be £50bn-£60bn or higher. Sterling soared against both the dollar and the euro on the news.

While this is a breakthrough in terms of working towards a Brexit deal that is acceptable to both sides it doesn't fully mitigate the risk that the UK might crash out of the union with no deal on its future terms of trade. This is because the bill is just one of three core issues that the EU wants settled before trade talks and there has been no progress in recent days on the other two – the Irish border with Northern Ireland and the status of EU citizens in Britain. The former of these two issues is particularly sensitive and Ireland threatens to veto any Brexit deal that does not make satisfactory provision for it.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world the North Korean regime has derailed what should have been strong Asian markets following gains in Wall Street yesterday by launching another ballistic missile and claiming that it now has the capacity to hit the US mainland. Pyongyang's latest provocation curbed investor enthusiasm in Asia, leading to mixed results for equities across the region. The Nikkei 225 gained ground, even though Japan's territorial waters were targeted by the test. 

Elsewhere, the US anti-dumping case against Beijing over aluminium imports could be a step towards a trade war between the world's top two economies. And if all that isn't enough, worries that Opec and Russia might fail to extend their crude oil production cap at tomorrow's meeting of the cartel is dampening oil prices and unsettling market sentiment.

Market signals

Asian session

  • Tokyo requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting Pyongyang's missile test
  • Despite North Korea's provocative test, Japan's Nikkei 225 headed higher
  • The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.49% at 22,597.20
  • South Korea's Kospi Composite closed down 0.05% at 2,512.90
  • Japan's retail sales surprised by falling 0.2% in the year to October, the first fall in a year
  • British and EU negotiators have reached a deal over the "Brexit bill"
  • The Senate Budget Committee approved the Republican tax bill
  • The US launched an anti-dumping case against Chinese aluminium producers 
  • Crude prices came under slight pressure ahead of Thursday's meeting of oil producers
  • The S&P/ASX200 closed up 0.45% at 6,011.10, thanks to gains for the big banks
  • RBNZ said it would ease restrictions on home loans given the recent cooling in the market
  • Bitcoin passed $10,000 amid fears of a bubble for the digital currency

Forex ahead

  • Sterling soared after Britain and the EU agreed on the Brexit "divorce bill"
  • The Aussie dollar slipped below 0.76; it was worth 0.7591 at 0652 GMT

From the Floor

Big breakthrough. "Sterling is very bid and I think justifiably so," says Hardy.

Inflation day. "Today's German CPI update is crucial because it directly impacts ECB policy," says Garnry.

Get all the latest from Saxo Bank's trading floors in From the Floor, within the hour.

In opinion

Demand jump
BHP Billiton says winter curbs on iron-ore production are delaying normal restocking, which could lead to a sudden jump in demand once constraints are lifted, explains Saxo Capital Markets (Australia).

Funding flow fears
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has retreated, amid concern Beijing will limit the flow of funds into the territory says Saxo APAC Sales Trading


 The UK has bowed to EU demands on the Brexit divorce bill in a move that could result in
Britain paying £50bn or more to Brussels. Photo: Shutterstock

Morning Markets goes out on the TradingFloor platform at 0800 GMT, Monday to Friday.
Click here
to make sure you're up to date with the latest developments.

08 April
Anatoly Vyacheslav Anatoly Vyacheslav
This comment has been redacted


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail