Article / Tuesday at 8:00 GMT

Morning Markets: Barrage of macro releases

Senior Editor / Saxo Bank
Denmark







chart

 

Watchlist

  • China: Industrial output, October (published)
  • China: Fixed-assets investment, October (published)
  • China: Fixed-assets investment, October (published)
  • Norway: GDP (published)
  • Germany: GDP first release (published)
  • Germany: CPI (published)
  • Spain: CPI (0800 GMT)
  • Sweden: CPI (0830 GMT)
  • Netherlands: GDP first estimate (0830 GMT)
  • Italy: GDP preliminary estimate (0900 GMT)
  • UK: Monthly inflation figures, CPI, PPI (0930 GMT)
  • Portugal: GDP flash estimate (0930 GMT)
  • Germany: ZEW economic sentiment survey (1000 GMT)
  • Greece: GDP flash estimate (1000 GMT)
  • EU: GDP flash estimate (1000 GMT)
  • EU: Industrial production (1000 GMT)
  • US: PPI (1330 GMT)
  • US: API weekly statistical bulletin, incl. crude oil stocks (2130 GMT)

After what felt like endless days of scant economic data and consequently lacklustre trading, a barrage of key updates today will give markets plenty to chew over. Some of it has already been released: overnight, China's industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales for October fell short of expectations, suggesting that Beijing's push to rein in debt and curb pollution are impacting the economy.  

Europe's calendar features GDP releases from several countries, including Germany. Data released at 07:00 GMT revealed an unexpectedly strong 0.8% expansion in its economic growth in the third quarter. We'll also due an update on UK GDP and PPI which will be especially interesting given the very messy Brexit process and Theresa May's increasingly tenuous hold on power.


Yesterday, the pound plunged on news that a group of her parliamentary party colleagues were planning a coup, but sterling later retraced some of the losses. The uncertainty will likely extend today after the latest twist had May caving in to pro-EU opinion and agreeing to a parliamentary vote on the final EU/UK divorce agreement. This illustrates, says the FT, how the "political turmoil within her government is taking a toll on her Brexit plans".


Over in South America, the turmoil within Venezuela has reached another peak with Standard & Poor's becoming the first rating agency to deem the country in default after it failed to meet a $200 million coupon payment deadline. S&P has therefore reduced Venezuela's rating to SD – selective default.

Market signals

Asian session

  • Trade topped the agenda when Trump met ASEAN leaders in Manila on Monday
  • Opec's Mohammad Barkindo says crude output cuts are only way to restore stability
  • The cartel meets in Vienna on November 30 to talk about oil production curbs
  • US CPI, GDP data due out later this week could impact the Fed's rate hike plans
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 clawed back some of Monday's sharp tumble
  • BoJ will persist with monetary easing to boost inflation, says governor Haruhiko Kuroda
  • China's industrial production for October was up 6.2% (less than the 6.3% expected)
  • China's fixed-asset investment for October rose 7.3% (7.8% was expected)
  • China's retail sales rose by 10% last month; 10.8% had been expected
  • GDP growth will slow in China, but pick up in India, Southeast Asia, to 2022: OECD
  • Heavy falls for resources firms, banks pushed the S&P/ASX200 sharply lower
  • The S&P/ASX200 fell through 6,000 points; it closed down by a hefty 0.93% at 5,966.00
  • A NAB survey said Australian business conditions sored to a high of 21 points in October

Forex ahead

  • USD firmed against the yen; it was worth ¥113.6380 at 0641 GMT
  • AUD clawed back some lost ground against USD; it was worth 0.7634 at 0640 GMT
  • GBP retreated against USD; it was worth 1.3107 at 0641 GMT


From the Floor

Not electric. "GE shares are in a big mess. They're down 8%," says Garnry


Cashing in. "Brent shows signs of profit taking as wait-and-see prevails," says Hansen


Get all the latest from Saxo Bank's trading floors in From the Floor, within the hour.

In opinion

China steel gloom
China's steel demand will fall more sharply than supply during winter, as a result of constraints imposed by Beijing, says Saxo Capital Markets Australia.

Suspended animation
Markets across Asia were treading water in early trading as investors awaited vital Chinese data on retail sales and industrial output, writes Saxo APAC Sales Trading

Sterling tarnished
The USD picture remains mixed, while sterling has suffered a fresh round of weakness on new political woes for prime minister Theresa May, writes John J Hardy


Ruhr factory

 The barrage of macroeconomic releases due out today, including data for GDP 
and industrial production in the EU, will attract plenty of scrutiny. Photo: Shutterstock


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