Article / 11 November 2015 at 8:00 GMT

Morning Markets: Alibaba's #SinglesDay headed for $12.5bn

Former managing editor, TradingFloor.com / Saxo Bank
Denmark

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Watchlist

  • China industrial output:  (0530 GMT; already published)
  • UK monthly unemployment:  (0930 GMT)
  • Portugal CPI:  (1100 GMT)

Alibaba said it expected to barge its way past last year's $9.3 billion sales record and was as good as its word. The 2014 figure was overtaken at lunch time and with eight hours to go, projections are for a $12.5 billion final figure.

Alibaba's share price poked its head back above $81 overnight and markets will keep a close eye on the New York open to see if the astonishing sales figure has any affect on the stock after it came under fire last week.

The Shanghai Composite Index failed to launch on the back of Single's Day with Chinese investors perhaps taking the day off to pick up bargains. At 0709 GMT, the index was at 3,650.249, up 0.27% on the day. 

Asian stocks in general were mixed after yet more data out of China showed growth in the world's second biggest economy was slowing but both the Nikkei and Hang Seng steadied the shop for a largely flat result on day.

It had threatened to become Europe's forgotten conflict but the Ukraine crisis could be about to blow again after an escalation in skirmishes between the Russian-backed rebels and government positions. The threat of more trouble on Europe's eastern border will undoubtedly place further pressure on the European core reeling from the ongoing humanitarian crisis and now fending off an attack from a recalcitrant UK which is trying to strong arm reform out of Brussels.

Meanwhile, UK unemployment may garner some attention but Portugal is also stealing some of the limelight after the prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho was toppled overnight as part of an anti-austerity push. Trouble on Europe's periphery. Now where have we heard that before?

Market signals

Asian session

  • China October industrial production and investment growth slowed, but retail sales rose
  • Industrial production for October rose 5.6% from a year earlier, the weakest since 2008
  • Fixed-asset investment was up 10.2% in the first 10 months - the slowest since 2000
  • Retail sales climbed 11% in October, the quickest gain this year
  • Single's Day transactions passed $9 billion before midday Beijing Time, eclipsing 2014
  • Asian equities mostly climbed from a four-week low after the mixed Chinese data
  • At 0358 GMT, the Hang Seng had declined 0.2% and the Enterprises gauge lost 1.3%
  • The Shanghai Composite Index, which entered a bull market last week, fell 0.8%
  • Australia's consumer confidence rose to a six-month high in November; up 3.9%
  • Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX200 rebounded, but fresh falls for BHP constrained rises
  • The S&P/ASX200 closed higher, adding 0.45% to finish at 5,122.6

Forex ahead

  • EURUSD slide through 1.0700 in NY session had moved options vols to the right
  • EURUSD consolidation above 1.0750 raises prospect of 1.0800 test
  • GBPUSD facing key resistance zone at 1.5200/50
  • One-month expiry GBPUSD trading at 7.3% ahead of BoE meeting December 10

From the Floor

QE dampener? The ECB may have already got what it wants with this huge euro weakening," says Hardy.

China-driven. "There's weakness in industrial metals like copper which is testing August lows, driven by China," says Hansen.

Get all the latest from Saxo Bank's trading floors in From the Floor, within the hour.

In opinion

1..2..3
Economists expect a flat to slight decline in today's UK claimant count, which isn’t likely to conflict with the generally upbeat outlook for Britain’s macro trend, writes James Picerno.

Baba or bust
Single's Day had reached the 2014 record in just 12 hours, says Neil Flynn, and is on track to hit total sales of around RMB 80bn ($12.5 bn) by the end of play.

Risky business
NZDUSD may be on borrowed time as two risks emerge, explains Max McKegg. There's the risk the rally in dairy prices was a dead cat bounce, as well as interest-rate differential concerns.

No quick uptick
The IEA said the drop in oil industry investment over the past year should support a recovery of crude prices to $80/barrel by 2020, but prices could stay low for longer, Ole Hansen writes.

Down time
EURJPY looks ripe for a fall below 130.00 in the run up to the European Central Bank's December 3 meeting if the bank plays ball on quantitative easing measures, John Hardy says.

Parity
EURUSD traders may soon be looking at parity for the euro and the dollar, and that would cause plenty of action in the markets, writes Michael O'Neill.

Minsky moment
Ukraine has no choice but to push on with the Minsk-2 agreement no matter how unpalatable. The alternative is to risk international support seeping away, says Nadia Kazakova.

Dither ye not
The US Federal Reserve's dithering over rate-hike liftoff has created an unholy mess and the outcome could be an overheating dollar and US economy, writes John J Hardy.

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 Ukraine is in danger of becoming the forgotten conflict
but flare ups are a common occurrence. Photo: iStock

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