​The Trump administration has not yet formally deployed the long-awaited latest $200 billion in tariffs against China, but a new Wall Street Journal report indicates that Japan might be next on the agenda.
Article / 12 January 2017 at 8:00 GMT

Morning Markets: A winter rebound for Europe?

Head of Editorial Content / Saxo Bank

Morning Markets


  • Eurozone: Industrial Production (1000 GMT)
  • US: Initial Jobless Claims (1330 GMT)
  • US: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (1450 GMT) 

While Donald Trump's press conference Wednesday may have been somewhat short of the excesses for which the president-elect's Twitter account has become (in)famous, it did feature some notable pronouncements including a detailed critique of the pharmaceutical industry and a redoubling of his insistence on building a border wall between Mexico and the US.

The reaction in markets saw extreme USD volatility versus the yen and euro with the greenback finishing on a downward trend due to Trump's neglecting to emphasise the fiscal stimulus plans that have underpinned the "Trump trade" rally. The dollar did post gains versus MXN on the wall talk, however.

As we head into the European open, today's focus will be on the Eurozone industrial production numbers set for release at 1000 GMT. Analysts are expecting the print to fall in line with the general strengthening trend seen of late.

Stateside, we have initial jobless claims out at 1330 GMT where forecasts call for a relatively strong showing from the US labour market in the wake of the slight December disappointment seen in the most recent nonfarm payrolls release.

Market signals

Asian session

  • US Treasuries rallied across the board overnight
  • The USD fell to a one-month low after Trump's short-on-policy press conference
  • Gold hit a seven-week high just below $US1200 an ounce
  • Japan posted a November current account surplus of ¥1.415, a rise of 28% year on year
  • NZ's Commodity Price Index rose 0.7% m/m in December
  • Asian shares opened mixed; the ASX was up while the Nikkei fell
  • The ASX 200 slipped 0.08% or 4.58 points to close at 5,766.9
  • The Nikkei dropped to a near two-week low after Trump's press conference

Forex ahead

  • The AUD was stronger against the greenback, at $0.7441 in Asian trade
  • The USD slipped to a one-month low against the yen
  • USDJPY slips below 115 handle following Trump speech
  • Euro spikes versus USD on lack of stimulus talk from president-elect

From the Floor

Trump deflator:The lack of a strong message on fiscal stimulus scared dollar longs,” says Hardy.

Red alert: There are a lot of signals that you should stay away from the US health sector,” says Garnry. 

Get all the latest from Saxo Bank's trading floors in From the Floor, within the hour.

In opinion

The Eurozone industrial production figures are the main attraction today with the consensus forecast seeking a rebound for November, writes James Picerno.

Bond encore
By next Wednesday’s US inflation update some of the record shorts in Treasuries may have been cleared, allowing the bond market to return to centre stage, says Max McKegg.

Aussie lift-off
The Aussie dollar was given a lift after the USD was sold off following President-elect Donald Trump's first press conference, explains the team at Saxo Capital Markets (Australia).

Industrial production

Today's European industrial production numbers are expected 
to reconfirm the generally bullish recent trend. Photo: iStock 

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