Article / 26 June 2014 at 9:29 GMT

Match focus: Expect the dollar to propel US to victory over Germany

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
Match: Germany Vs US

Group: G

When: June 26, 1600 GMT

Category: Forex

Analysis: 
It’s a clash of titans today as football superpower Germany takes on the up-and-coming US squad in the final group round game. In the currency version of this matchup, the USD looks poised to edge the euro. This is the second time during this World Cup that sees a face-off between the US and Eurozone team, and therefore a showdown between the US dollar and the euro. Yesterday saw the greenback weaker on an ugly downward revision of the US Q1 GDP. But that is ancient history as here we are in the last week of Q2 now, in case anyone hasn’t noticed, and survey and confidence numbers are looking up for the US, while the forward components of many key German surveys suggest a slowdown lies ahead. Meanwhile, the US Fed is in the midst of slowly unwinding policy while the ECB launched a slew of new policy easing measures at this month’s ECB meeting, including negative deposit rates, liquidity operations for banks, and other measures. 

Prediction: The US dollar for the win. 

Chart: EURUSD

The EURUSD backed up a bit after an ugly revision of Q1 GDP data, but if the 1.3650 area resistance from yesterday stays in place for now (and failing that, if the more important 1.3675 area that includes flatline resistance and the 200-day moving average reins in the upside), then the pair may stay within the recent range and look forward to testing the structural support down toward 1.3500 in the days ahead.

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Source: Saxo Bank

-- Edited by Martin O'Rourke

John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank. Click here for more of his articles and analysis.
26 June
Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
Has John called it right? do you think the dollar's set to trump the euro today? Comment below and follow all our World Cup-related content here. https://www.tradingfloor.com/publications/world-cup-2014
26 June
Olivier Francoeur Olivier Francoeur
You're confusing the people with the Government.

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