TV

Lea Jakobiak
On the eve of a keynote speech by the ECB President, Mario Draghi, one leading economist doesn't hold back in the way he believes the Bank has dealt with the eurozone's faltering recovery.
Article / 07 February 2013 at 6:55 GMT

Market Preview: Central bankers in focus, US jobless claims eyed

SaxoBankUK SaxoBankUK
Saxo Capital Markets UK
United Kingdom

Forex Overnight: EUR trading weaker
Currency Intraday
The EUR is trading lower against its main peers this morning. Traders remain cautious ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) and the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meetings and Spanish bond auctions due later today. Additionally, the incoming Bank of England governor, Mark Carney’s testimony before the Treasury Select Committee and the ECB president, Mario Draghi’s post-meeting press conference will garner market attention. At 06:00 GMT, the EUR has declined 0.1 percent each versus the USD and the GBP to trade at USD 1.3516 and GBP 0.8630, respectively.

The JPY has strengthened 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent against the EUR and the USD, respectively. Data released earlier today indicated that machine orders in Japan unexpectedly rose in December.

UK Stocks: Likely to open marginally in the red
FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 is expected to open 2 to 6 points in negative territory.

Manufacturing and Industrial Production, Visible and Total Trade Balance and NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate are the key economic indicators scheduled for release today. Additionally, markets are keeping an eye on the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting due later today.

Smith & Nephew (SN/), TUI Travel (TT/), Beazley (BEZ), Ocado Group (OCDO) and McBride (MCB) are scheduled to report their results today.

The Australian Financial Review reported that BHP Billiton (BLT) has appointed UBS AG to find a buyer for its Gregory Crinum coking coal operations in Australia’s Queensland state.

Barclays (BARC) has stated that its investment-banking business, Barclays Capital, plans to eliminate around 275 jobs at three New York city locations in May 2013.

International Consolidated Airline Group SA (IAG) has indicated that it would not raise its EUR 113.0 million offer to buy out the remaining shares in Vueling, a Spanish budget carrier.

Asia: Trading mostly lower
Nikkei 225
Asian markets are trading mostly in the red this morning.

In Japan, Yamaha (7951) and Nikon (7731) have slumped after they reported weaker-than-expected quarterly results and lowered their full year profit outlook. On the upside, Sony (6758) has advanced after it announced a deal with Juki (6440) to form an electronic-parts-mounting joint venture with the company. Mitsui Fudosan (8801) has gained after it reported an increase in its profit for nine months period, citing a rise in home sales. Mazda Motor (7261) has gained after it swung to a profit for nine months ended December 2012 and hiked its full year guidance. At 06:00 GMT, the Nikkei 225 has retreated 0.9 percent to trade at 11,361.3.

In Hong Kong, Aluminum Corporation of China (2600) has declined amid reports that Lenovo Group (992) would be replacing the former in the Hang Seng Index next month. Resource sector stocks, Jiangxi Copper (358) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (386) have registered losses. In China, China Merchants Bank (600036) and China Citic Bank (601998) are trading lower. Property sector stocks, China Vanke (000002) and Gemdale (600383) have declined amid speculation that some cities might slow approvals of new home sales in China. In South Korea, markets are trading lower after a senior finance official in South Korea warned that the country’s economy might deteriorate further.

US Stocks: Futures trading weak
S&P 500
At 6 am GMT, S&P 500 futures are trading 0.6 points lower.

Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims, Consumer Credit Change, Unit Labour Cost and Non-Farm Productivity are the key economic indicators slated for release today.

Philip Morris International (PM), Exelon (EXC), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Noble Energy (NBL), Cigna Corporation (CI), Sprint Nextel (S), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), KKR (KKR), Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT) and Bunge (BG) are scheduled to announce their results later today.

Visa (V)
declined 1.3 percent in the after hours trading session on Wednesday despite reporting better-than-expected first quarter results. A bleak full-year earnings outlook led News Corporation (NWSA) to retreat 4.3 percent. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) slumped 7.0 percent after it provided a lower-than-estimated second quarter revenue guidance. Prudential Financial (PRU) edged 1.0 percent lower after it swung to a loss in the fourth quarter due to foreign exchange fluctuations. On the upside, Yahoo! (YHOO) advanced 1.5 percent after it signed a non-exclusive agreement with Google (GOOG) to allow the latter to display advertisement on Yahoo! web properties. Robust second quarter results led DeVry (DV) to rally 14.0 percent.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 index reversed its early session losses and closed 0.1 percent higher in the regular trading session. Better-than-anticipated quarterly results led IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) and Walt Disney (DIS) to edge 1.2 percent and 0.4 percent higher, respectively. Google (GOOG) gained 2.6 percent after it agreed to acquire Channel Intelligence for a cash consideration of USD 125.0 million. Time Warner (TWX) surged 4.1 percent after it posted upbeat fourth quarter profit and hiked its dividend payout. Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) jumped 6.8 percent after it reported better-than-forecast fourth quarter results and raised its 2013 guidance. Ralph Lauren (RL) climbed 5.9 percent following strong third quarter earnings. On the flip side, C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) tumbled 9.7 percent after it reported lower-than-expected fourth quarter earnings per share. GameStop (GME) slumped 6.0 percent amid speculation that Microsoft Corporation's (MSFT) next Xbox game consoles might not be compatible with used games.

European Stocks: Expected to open marginally higher
EU Stoxx 50

The DAX and the CAC are likely to open 4 to 5 points firmer, each.

German Industrial Production, Swiss SECO Consumer Confidence Index & Foreign Currency Reserves, Spanish Industrial Output and French Trade Balance are the key economic indicators scheduled for release today. Moreover, markets are keeping a tab on the ECB’s interest rate decision and press conference due later today.

Sanofi SA (SAN), Statoil ASA (STL), Daimler AG (DAI), Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN), DNB ASA (DNB), Telecom Italia SpA (TIT), Dassault Systemes SA (DSY), Heidelberg Cement AG (HEI), Orkla ASA (ORK) and Eutelsat Communications SA (ETL) are scheduled to report their results later today.

Bloomberg has reported that Siemens AG’s (SIE) solar business CEO, Theodor Scheidegger, has resigned before the planned sale of its solar unit.

Reuters has reported that Banco Santander SA (BAN) and US-based company, Chrysler Group LLC, have agreed to create a new financing arm called Chrysler Capital, that would provide customers with purchase and lease financing.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Alcatel-Lucent SA (ALU) is expected to announce the departure of its CEO, Ben Verwaayen.

Reuters has reported that Salini, one of the key shareholder of Impregilo SpA (IPG), has made an offer of EUR 4.0 per share to acquire the remaining stake in the latter.

Macro Update
Euro’s high level is a concern, says Greek’s Stournaras
In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Yannis Stournaras, the Finance Minister of Greece, has stated that the strength of the Euro is a concern as its current level has made it harder for Greek exporters to sell their products abroad.

Monetary policy could help to beat deflation, indicates Japan’s Abe
Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan, has stated that as deflation is a monetary phenomenon, monetary policy should play a central role to overcome years of deflation and boost the economy.

Machine orders in Japan unexpectedly rise
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, core machine orders in Japan have unexpectedly risen 2.8 percent in December compared to a 3.9 percent rise posted in the earlier month.

Australia’s unemployment rate remains unchanged
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate in Australia has remained unchanged at 5.4 percent in January compared to a similar rate recorded last month.

Business sentiment in Australia declines
The National Australia Bank (NAB) has reported that its business confidence index in Australia has declined to a reading of -5.0 in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to a downwardly revised reading of -4.0 recorded in the third quarter.

Australia‘s construction activity contracts further
The Australian Industry Group’s Performance of Construction Index in Australia has dropped to a reading of 36.2 in January compared to a reading of 38.8 recorded in December.

New Zealand’s jobless rate falls more-than-expected
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate in New Zealand has dropped to 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, more than market expectations and compared to a 7.3 percent rate reported in the previous quarter.

Economic Calendar

Country

GMT

Economic Indicator

Relevance

Consensus/
*Actual

Previous

Frequency

Japan

2:00

Tokyo Average office Vacancies (MoM) (Jan)

Low

8.56%*

8.67%

Monthly

Japan

5:00

Leading Index, Prelim (Dec)

Medium

93.40*

92.00

Monthly

Japan

5:00

Coincident Index, Prelim (Dec)

Low

92.70*

90.20

Monthly

Switzerland

6:45

SECO Consumer Confidence (3M) (Jan)

Medium

-12.00

-17.00

Monthly

France

7:45

Trade Balance (Dec)

Low

 -EUR 4.15 bn

 -EUR 4.33 bn

Monthly

Switzerland

8:00

Foreign Currency Reserves (Jan)

Low

CHF 428.50 bn

CHF 427.20 bn

Monthly

Spain

8:00

Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) (Dec)

Low

-6.60%

-7.20%

Monthly

UK

9:30

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Dec)

Medium

-2.40%

-2.10%

Monthly

UK

9:30

Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)

Medium

-2.00%

-2.40%

Monthly

UK

9:30

Visible Trade Balance (Dec)

Medium

 -GBP 8.90 bn

 -GBP 9.16 bn

Monthly

UK

9:45

Mark Carney speaks at UK Parliament

Medium

-

-

-

Eurozone

10:00

European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts

Medium

-

-

-

Germany

11:00

Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Dec)

Medium

0.20%

0.20%

Monthly

UK

12:00

BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Feb)

High

GBP 375.00 bn

GBP 375.00 bn

-

UK

12:00

BoE Interest Rate Decision

High

0.50%

0.50%

-

Eurozone

12:45

ECB Interest Rate Decision

High

0.75%

0.75%

-

Eurozone

13:30

ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference

High

-

-

-

US

13:30

Initial Jobless Claims (2 Feb)

Medium

360.00 K

368.00 K

Weekly

US

13:30

Continuing Jobless Claims (26 Jan)

Low

3193.00 K

3197.00 K

Weekly

US

13:30

Non-Farm Productivity, Prelim (Q4)

Low

-1.40%

2.90%

Quarterly

US

13:30

Unit Labour Costs, Prelim (Q4)

Low

3.00%

-1.90%

Quarterly

Canada

13:30

Building Permits (MoM) (Dec)

Low

5.00%

-17.90%

Monthly

Canada

13:30

New Housing Price Index (YoY) (Dec)

Medium

2.20%

2.20%

Monthly

Eurozone

14:15

European Council Meeting

Medium

-

-

-

UK

15:00

NIESR Gross Domestic Product, Prelim (Jan)

Medium

-

-0.30%

Monthly

US

18:00

Fed's Bullard speech

Low

-

-

-

US

20:00

Consumer Credit Change (Dec)

Medium

USD 14.00 bn

USD 16.05 bn

Monthly

Japan

23:50

Bank Lending Including Trusts (YoY) (Jan)

Low

-

1.20%

Monthly

Japan

23:50

Housing Loans (YoY) (Q4)

Low

-

3.00%

Quarterly

Japan

23:50

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Dec)

Medium

 -JPY 560.60 bn

 -JPY 847.50 bn

Monthly

Japan

23:50

Current Account n.s.a (Dec)

Low

 -JPY 144.20 bn

 -JPY 222.40 bn

Monthly


See today's events updated in real-time in our Financial Calendar on TradingFloor.com

Corporate Calendar

Country

Company Name

Index

Announcement

UK

Avon Rubber Plc

FTSE All Share

Trading

UK

Beazley Plc

FTSE All Share

Final

UK

Bellway Plc

FTSE All Share

Trading

UK

Compass Group Plc

FTSE All Share

Trading

UK

ICAP Plc

FTSE All Share

Trading

UK

McBride Plc

FTSE All Share

Interim

UK

Ocado Group Plc

FTSE All Share

Prelim

UK

Smith & Nephew Plc

FTSE All Share

Q4 Earnings Release

UK

Supergroup Plc

FTSE All Share

Trading

UK

Thomas Cook Group Plc

FTSE All Share

Trading

UK

TUI Travel Plc

FTSE All Share

Q1 Earnings Release

UK

Vodafone Group Plc

FTSE All Share

Trading

Germany

Daimler AG

DAX 30, EuroStoxx 50

Q4 Earnings Release

Germany

Heidelberg Cement AG

DAX 30

Prelim

France

Sanofi SA

CAC 40, EuroStoxx 50

Final

US

Apartment Investment and Management Co.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

CareFusion Corp.

S&P 500

Q2 Earnings Release

US

Cigna Corp.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Exelon Corp.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

FLIR Systems Inc.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Hasbro Inc.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Microchip Technology Inc.

S&P 500

Q3 Earnings Release

US

Noble Energy Inc.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Philip Morris International Inc.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Republic Services Inc.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Scripps Networks Interactive Inc.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Sigma-Aldrich Corp.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Snap-On Inc.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Sprint Nextel Corp.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Teradata Corp.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

US

Xylem Inc.

S&P 500

Q4 Earnings Release

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