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Kay Van-Petersen
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Article / 10 December 2014 at 9:08 GMT

Mario Draghi quitte la BCE

Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
Denmark
Le terme du mandat de Mario Draghi comme président de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) est loin d’être achevé mais son temps est peut-être compté, si la récente recrudescence de rumeurs et de fuites devient la nouvelle manière de faire à Francfort. Draghi a probablement atteint la limite de ce qu’il peut faire en se contentant de « parler au marché ». Il est généralement admis que l’économie européenne actuelle est si faible qu’un quantitative easing de la BCE est presque acquis. Mais Mario Draghi pourrait être obligé de quitter la scène pour que ce programme soit mis en œuvre.
 
C’est presque la théorie des jeux : le président de la BCE a atteint sa limite alors que dans son pays, le président Napolitano veut s’en aller d’ici juin 2015. Le premier ministre Renzi, qui dirige un gouvernement minoritaire, a besoin d’une personnalité largement acceptée pour remplacer un président populaire, mais vieillissant, car le parlement italien requiert une majorité des deux tiers pour soutenir le candidat.
 
La réelle surprise de l’année prochaine pourrait-elle être que Renzi et Napolitano demandent à Draghi de revenir au bercail ? Super Mario pourrait être l’homme providentiel pour sauver le processus de réformes et assurer un mandat clair afin que l’Italie avance enfin. Ce départ permettrait à Jens Weidmann de prendre la présidence de la BCE à la faveur d’un échange de bons procédés voyant la Bundesbank autoriser un programme « light » d’assouplissement quantitatif, à condition qu’il soit sous la supervision d’un président allemand, et pas d’un membre du « Club Med » ?
 
La politique est l’art du compromis et ce compromis pourrait bien être exactement ce dont l’Europe a besoin pour accepter un QE de manière tardive – trop tardive, mais comme on dit dans les cercles macroéconomiques, imaginez que nous ne l’ayons pas fait.
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