Article / 11 July 2016 at 3:10 GMT

Macro Monday call: What if the BoE doesn't cut rates?

Global Macro Strategist / Saxo Bank Group - Singapore Hub
By Kay Van-Petersen

Welcome to Macro Monday, Your Cross Asset Weekly Call on Global Markets

This is a summary of Macro Monday, Saxo Singapore's cross-asset weekly call on global markets.

Here is this morning's recording of this week's Macro Monday Call.

  • Tactical near-term picture and price action seems to be more confusing every week. We finally get a reversal of the May US nonfarm figure (which was a big miss), with a very strong beat on Friday for June (up by 287,000, versus just 180,000 expected). And yet not only bonds but equities rallies as well? Despite US economic data continuing to tick up (Citi US surprise index highest since January 2015).
  • US equities sentiment seems set on bullish and heedless of news flow/data points.
  • Expect Federal Reserve implied rate hike probabilities to edge up, with a cascade of Fed speakers on the horn every day this week. Favoured USD longs versus GBP, CHF, EUR shorts.
  • Meanwhile yield compression trade will lead to record new lows, even if the Fed hikes  three times this year, it will make no difference; US 10s (1.37%) will be sub 1.2%/1.0% by Q3/Q4.
  • Capital preservation will take aggressive precedence over capital appreciation.
  • Charts galore including: gold, JPY, CAD, GBP, EUR, DXY, WTI crude, copper, the ASX, S&P.
  • Strategic view, what are the high probability pathways across the asset classes from a long-term perspective 12-18 months.
  • Week ahead: CH/PH/UN Tuesday, Bank Negara Malaysia, Bank of China, Bank of England (25 basis points expected; and if they don’t cut?), Bank of Korea, BCCH.

Here is this morning’s recording of this Week’s Macro Monday Call


Follow us twitter: @SaxoStrats, @KVP_Macro

– Edited by Robert Ryan

Kay Van Petersen's the Macro Take has now been folded into the Macro Monday Call. Here is this morning’s recording of this Week’s Macro Monday Call. Please join us here each Monday when we go live at 0000 GMT - 0830 (Singapore/Hong Kong time), 0930 (Tokyo), 1030 (Sydney).
S Maplewood S Maplewood
The recording link above is last week's...


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail