Short term
Trade view / 09 April 2018 at 6:37 GMT

Macro Monday Book: Tactical Long on S&P Futures #SaxoStrats

Global Macro Strategist / Saxo Bank Group - Singapore Hub
Instrument: SPY:arcx
Price target: 2700
Market price: 2620

Tactical long with the thesis that technicals are improving (back over 200D and closed above the key 2600 levels) and US earnings momentum will give US equities some needed momentum upwards - taking us out of the choppy range of the last few weeks... 

Long from 2620 in early Asia Monday, 9 April 18, targeting 33% at 2700 and 2750, and leaving the potential 3rd leg as an adhoc price level for now 

Management and risk description

Allocating 20% of capital to this trade or around $2m, a move below recent lows of around 2550 would potentially jeopardize this tactical bullish call. 

Key risks remain: Escalation in trade war fears between China and the US, further geopolitical risks (US / Syria / Russia) & of course poor earnings coming out of the US earning season 


Entry: 2620 

Stop: Allocating 20% of capital to this trade, in this case $2m of the $10m Macro Monday
Portfolio. Those looking for a hard stop should consider 2550 (a touch above recent lows) which would be a -2.67%

Target: 1/3 at 2, 700, 1/3 at 27501/3 ad hoc

Time horizon:  One to four weeks 

— Edited by Adam Courtenay

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on is found here
Coco84 Coco84
what does it mean when you say 1/3 at 2,700, 1/3 at 2750? Does it mean you will take profit for 1/3 of your position when the index hits 2,700 and leave the 2/3 of your position long?
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
Coco 84, exactly... I like to build a line in & out of positions...
ChristianK ChristianK
Choppy action last night. Let's see which way we are heading today....I also favor an uptrend in the near to medium term
ChristianK ChristianK
Coco 84. Another way would be to move your stop loss every time you hit one of the targets. Pros and cons...
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
Trade View Update (Wed 18 Apr 18):
On Monday 9 Apr 18, the MM book put on a controversial tactical long in the S&P futures, long from 2620, risk 2550 & tgting 2700/2750/adhoc in three clip.

The first leg in our tactical long S&P Futures hit at 2700 o/n, a +3% move.

This leaves a 2nd leg target 2750 & the last leg's tgt open for now

We move our stop from 2550 to our entry of 2620. Those looking for a wider stop can place it just below the 200DMA of 2600

The MM thesis of US equity melt-up driven by US erns season, continues to play out well. At the moment the 2750 / 2800 lvls is most likely where we will see congestion

Note this is also about level & time, i.e. getting to 2800 whilst erns are still on-going or getting to 2800 right when erns are coming to a finish are very different things…

We'd be looking to either exit the trade or move up our stops significantly if we get to the end of US erns without any of our targets being hit.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail