John J Hardy
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy takes a closer look at trends and moves in today’s forex charts, including EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURSEK.
Article / 09 February 2018 at 15:38 GMT

Macro Digest: What to watch as the weekend approaches – #SaxoStrats

Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
 Things calmed on the US open Friday but we're still in wait-and-see mode. Pic: Shutterstock

By Steen Jakobsen

Two critically important charts before the weekend:

The first one analysis comes courtesy of Marketwatch and the chart itself from Arbeter Investments LLC president Mark Arbeter, CMT.

The key phrase in this piece being:

“….Arbeter noted that while rates may not yet be ready to soar, equity investors may have reason to be worried. When the yield bumped up against the downtrend line before, as happened in 1987, 1990, 1994, 2000 and 2007, bad things happened on Wall Street.”

yields and stocks  Source: Arbeter Investments LLC president Mark Arbeter, CMT 

Point: Whether we break the uptrend or not, there is “negative feed-back loop” into risk assets.

The second is just as important and comes from @SongMun67 - Song Mun who pointed out on Twitter:  Markets have a logarithmic nature. Semi-log charts are much better in the long-term. 
 Source: @SongMun67 - Song Mun

Here the point is that we haven't broken upwards …… yet.

Also note this – We at Saxo Bank have developed our own credit impluse models, see this note from my head of macro analysis, Christopher Dembik.

credit impulse

The NASDAQ future could close below its daily 100 SMA:
Source: Bloomberg 

Maybe it’s not a coincidence that the market traffic signal is still on amber:
 Source: Shutterstock

John Hardy made an excellent video explaining this week in details: watch it here.

– Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Steen Jakobsen is chief economist and CIO at Saxo Bank


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