The crude oil trade remains heavily speculative as traders crowd the long side in anticipation of an agreement between Moscow in Riyadh. This morning, however, prices have turned lower as Iraq is seeking an exemption from the Opec deal citing military spending needs.
Article / 16 June 2016 at 10:30 GMT

Macro Digest: US 30-year bond wins big on Fed

Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
  • Fed's dithering has meant solid gains for the 30-yr T-bill
  • Yellen and her colleagues face a credibility questionmark
  • Best advice is never to heed central bankers
  • Central banks invariably do to little, too late
 You may talk away but we've got our headsets turned off. Pic: Federal Reserve

By Steen Jakobsen

The hawkish tilt that the Federal Reserve took at its April policy-setting meeting has had one major beneficiary – the US 30-year Treasury (charts below).

Fading the Fed is the biggest money winner this year – again – and questions are increasingly being raised about the credibility of  central bank chief Janet Yellen and her colleagues. 

For the rest of us, the rule of thumb for central banks is this: Don’t listen to what they say, but observe what the do…(which almost always is nothing, too little or too late).
 US 30-year government bond:
 Source: Bloomberg

 Source: Bloomberg

Some more charts worth noting:


The bank sector is under attack again...


 Euro downside is increasing due to Brexit…

Europe growth leading indicator is point to SIGNIFICANT slow-down – Ie: Brexit vote yes or no is already having a negative impact….
opinion polls
 – Edited by Clare MacCarthy


Steen Jakobsen is chief economist and CIO at Saxo Bank


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