Article / 13 September 2017 at 9:18 GMT

Macro Digest: 'The most important non-event election in decades'

Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
Denmark
  • 'FPD will win, SPD will lose big'
  • Europe's future hinges on German vote
  • Refugee crisis remains key issue for Berlin
Berlin
Even if it keeps its chancellor (as is widely expected), the result of Germany's election 
will likely not be 'more of the same'. Photo: Shutterstock

By Steen Jakobsen

Having had some success in calling the results of recent referenda and elections, I am sure that I will get this one wrong...

Nevertheless: FPD will win, and SPD will lose big.

AfD will get in but it is ultimately a fragmented party with no leadership and no future.

When I say "the most important non-event election in decades," I am referring to Germany in its European context; the ultimate Brexit deal and Europe's future will be heavily impacted by the new political scene in Berlin.

Chancellor Angela Merkel is keeping her job mainly due to the "triple threat" of Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The number-one campaign topic should have been the refugee crisis, where German voters don't want to close nor fully open the door... they had been hoping for a "compromise".

After the election, of course, this issue remains the key factor for Berlin to address as the German public are far from assuaged on this front.

Click the attachment for Steen Jakobsen's full presentation on the upcoming German election.

— Edited by Michael McKenna

Steen Jakobsen is chief economist and CIO at Saxo Bank

Download document

Jakobsen on Germany

16 September
Alfa1956 Alfa1956
Right to the point.
And yes, there's a new PET power around the corner, at least PutinErdoganTrump kind of new hurdles system... No way to escape them in the near future.
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