​The Trump administration has not yet formally deployed the long-awaited latest $200 billion in tariffs against China, but a new Wall Street Journal report indicates that Japan might be next on the agenda.
Article / 12 August 2014 at 12:53 GMT

Macro Digest: It's time to get long in EURUSD

Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank

By Steen Jakobsen

Our JABA model sees broad-based and significant weakness in the US dollar through mid-Q3 into Q1-2015. I’m already short USDJPY (from the present level) and am now adding long EURUSD.

I'm buying EURUSD here - for a couple of reasons:

#1: Positioning - see graph below
#2: My short-term turned up...
#3: JABA model sees clear weakness in US dollar mid-Q3 into Q1-2015

Spot cash: 1.3344
Stop: 1.3270 offered














 -- Edited by Clare MacCarthy


Steen Jakobsen is chief economist of Saxo Bank


Elianto Elianto
Hallo Steen... We have a time horizon and a probable target for this trade? TKS!
Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
Q! 2015 - 1.40+ EURUSD
ssivis ssivis
It s really brave "call" Mr.Steen :-), hope this JABA model works like Saxo's old Turtle model
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
The recent fall in EURUSD has been mostly because of higher interest rate expectations in US, and secondly the European Central Bank's measures, esp. TLTRO, introduced at the June meeting. With Asia relatively slow, Europe very slow and geopolitical risks, the case for higher rates in US is not that certain. It is also uncertain how effective a monetary boost will the TLTRO be. The inflation breakevens suggest there will be no inflation in Europe, which implies that the TLTRO is expected to fail on that front. Ukrainian crisis and the sanctions against Russia should also be temporary, and a relief rally in EURUSD would be quite plausible. For more on breakevens, see See Max McKegg ( and me (
Hi Steen. Is this still on, or would it be better to get out of the trade at a bounce back?
Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
It's still on - I remain with the stop @ 1.3270 offered......
bubffm bubffm
so I guess you've been nocked out by now...


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail