Medium term
Trade view / 15 August 2016 at 5:11 GMT

Lundin Petroleum once again of interest for shorts


The stock of Swedish oil company Lundin Petroleum (LUPE:xome) did bounce, unfortunately that didn't help the trade view published on July 28 as key levels were broken to the downside. This now puts the stock of this company in a very interesting situation: is it going to break higher or has it reversed to the downside. In large we are at a so-called inflection point.

For long-term bullish prospects we need a daily close above SEK 163, but until then this stock appears range bound with the aforementioned level as a breakout pivot and SEK 137 as support to the downside.

The move lower from the July into the August 2 low took 20 days, from there the bounce has now managed to rise for 10 days; on day 12 which was Sunday (yesterday) we have an alignment for a reversal lower. 

Even though early in the making, a spinning top Friday is telling us that bearish pressure in the coming days is on the cards. Also note how the Slow stochastic indicator (STOC-S) is at levels from where a reversal can take place.

Short-term support pivots are SEK 151, from there we have SEK 145 and SEK 137.

Management and risk description

The plan is to sell the stock of Lundin Petroleum (LUPE:xome) upon a close below SEK 151, which would be indicative of at least a short to medium-term swing lower into support at SEK 145 and also possibly a retest of the SEK 137 level. The stop could be placed at SEK 157 for starters. Once the first target has been hit the stop can be lowered to a close above SEK 151. A daily close above SEK 151 could also work as the initial stop for those who prefer tight stops.

The risk to this setup is a fake break lower that is quickly reversed.

The past trade view from July 28 is found here and the one before that published on July 8 is found here.

Entry: sell below SEK 151.

Stop: SEK 157 or a daily close above SEK 151.

Target: SEK 145 and SEK 137.

Time horizon: one to two weeks.

LUPE:xome daily chart
LUPE:xome daily chart
LUPE:xome daily development chart LUPE:xome daily development chart
 Source: all charts Saxo Trader. Create your own charts with SaxoTrader; click here to learn more 

– Edited by Gayle Bryant

For more on equities click here

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
15 August
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
A bearish candle print today, might be able to close for a bearish trigger tomorrow.
16 August
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
Today this stock managed to use the trigger level as support, implies SEK 157 is in for a test and a failed confirmation.
16 August
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
Failed confimation of the time cycles, this far. If we head lower tomorrow and from then on shorts are still on upon trigger.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail