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Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Ian Coleman of First4Trading.net explains in a technical analysis of charts why he is trading EURCHF. Coleman is aiming to buy EURCHF at 1.0928 with a stop at 1.0900. His intraday target is 1.0992 and his midterm target is 1.1125.
Short term
Trade view / 29 June 2016 at 11:14 GMT

Loonie may come under renewed pressure

FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
Canada
Instrument: USDCAD
Price target:
Market price:
Background

USDCAD has bounced between 1.2900 and 1.3120 since the first Brexit results were announced. Oil prices have alternated between providing support or undermining the Canadian dollar on a constantly shifting general US dollar.
 
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.2970 supported by short-term technicals that are bullish above 1.2810 from the May low.

There are rumors that the large drop in US equities in June will lead to US dollar buying versus the Canadian dollar which if so, will provide further incentive for a move higher. 

Canadian GDP data for April are due this morning (forecasted 0.1% versus previous minus 0.2%). A worse than expected number would be USDCAD-positive. A better than expected number may have minimal impact as it won’t reflect the negative from the Alberta wildfires.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-June range is a juicy target and comes into play at 1.3309. 

The Istanbul airport attack and the uncertainty from Brexit should keep the focus on risk aversion especially as the US heads into a long weekend.
 
Management and risk description 

This is a risky trade as USDCAD direction continues to be at the whim of global forces and oil prices. The technical rationale for this trade is sketchy as USDCAD has struggled to break above the 100-day moving average (1.3065). The stop will be triggered on a far-better-than-expected Canadian GDP print which lead to a spike lower in USDCAD. 

In addition, there is a lot of time between now and the possible month end fixing demand for USDCAD. That means, possible USDCAD demand for the fix to start from much lower levels.

Parameters

Entry: Buy 1/3 position of USDCAD call at market (currently 1.2988), 1/3 at 1.2945 and 1/3 at 1.2910.

Stop: 1.2872.

Target: 1.3200.

Time horizon: five days.

USDCAD 30-minute buy levels and stop-loss shown:
usdcad
Source: Saxo Bank 

USDCAD four-hour with Fibonacci retracement noted:
usdcad
Source: Saxo Bank 

USDCAD five-year daily with moving averages:
usdcad

Create your own charts with SaxoTraderGO click here to learn more

Source: Saxo Bank

— Edited by Michael McKenna

For more on forex click here.

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
29 June
fxtime fxtime
FWIW I have a 1.3010 long order pending...(just set) as I suspect it may pass on the early dip and 1:1 low !! it doesn't matter as we are both looking to trade the same direction though :-)
29 June
fxtime fxtime
mickey mouse chart for reasoning....basically a price breakout trade for a scalp and trail or position intraday providing you get a close above or below that open range OHLC...I know it seems too easy but I will let you backtest :-)
29 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Forgive me for being dense, but is your open close UK time or NY time. I'm sure the principal is the same whatever timezone.
And BTW, I like simple.
29 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Trade Idea Correction-Canada GDP is due Thrusday not today. It has no bearing on the trade
29 June
fxtime fxtime
The time frame I use for my so called ''open range'' which in truth is a price fixing point is 11am-12noon BST...I deliberately deleted the timings as I don't know your current times. The chart is hourly and it should match what you have showing in Canada though and from that you will know the comparable time frame I am showing. A break of the highlighted range gives ;
94% probability of +5pips net
79.8% probability for +10 net
So normally I seek high stakes on the +5 pips then await a close above or below before re-entering the trade. That 30min set up I posted last week is usually even more reliable for intraday position trades fwiw using the same reference candle !!
29 June
fxtime fxtime
Obviously on the chart you will see I already have made the +5...my daily client rev target nets at a measly +3 to be positively above the sharpe ratios and ROCE demands :-)
29 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Its brilliant and its simple.The whole point of this exercise is to finish the day, week, month etc with more money than you started with. With the probability you described it makes total sense.
29 June
fxtime fxtime
Well so far it works LOL....watch today fall apart LOL...remember you can only scalp for the +5 once in either direction per day. eg I have got the first +5 as a short so for the rest of the day I can only trade another +5 scalp to the long side or position trade as mentioned. The stop for the intraday position is a stop falling the otherway !
29 June
fxtime fxtime
As you say....in our game it is the positive returns that matter....our clients aren't interested in any reasons for sudden adverse moves etc they only want to know the bottom line.
29 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
So true-
29 June
fxtime fxtime
+5 again...lucky :-)))))))
So +10 high stakes banked so far. Now I will only seek normalised trade stakes as described.
Must admit that once i posted the strategy I thought the Law of S*D would happen and the stop would have been hit LOL.
29 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Great work- You know, you gotta be good to be lucky. :)
29 June
fxtime fxtime
Well your trade set up is working too :-)
It is always a good day once you have a banked profit IMHO.
29 June
fxtime fxtime
There isn't enough time to run a positional trade now for the loon. We will have to test the second strategy out tomorrow mate :-)
29 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Will do. Thanks. Have a great evening
30 June
Hisham Boulos Hisham Boulos
Hi Mike, can you please explain what is the relation between drop in US equity and dollar buying .. :)

Thanks
30 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Essentially, the theory is that when US equity prices decline, managers that hedge currency exposure need to buy back some of those hedges to get back within their hedge ratio's. It is not an exact science at all
30 June
Hisham Boulos Hisham Boulos
:) yes got that .. man you are an early bird ... Thanks ...
30 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
I slept in today.
30 June
fxtime fxtime
LOL.....our days are long enough. Pleased you don't have a bed in the office!!

Chart attached for the probability trade I mentioned FWIW.
30 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
i was on the case: It worked flawlessly-Great info, thanks
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Yeah easy profits.......drinks on you then :-)
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Annual returns on average per annum trades for the +5 scenario.....remember we often get more than one trade in a day....equates to 1,512 pips net after losses (average total annual loss 73pips)....obviously intraday positional trades earn more and your strategies that run 3 more days even more but never the less a welcome trade to have :-)
30 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
That is an awesome batting average. Thanks. I would love to buy you a drink or 10. When you are in the Toronto area or if I get to to London. (my son is there now and for the next 2 weeks working
30 June
fxtime fxtime
FWIW I will post a time line in next weeks article that includes the Loon that may be of worth to your good self.
Sadly not in London soon but strangely I am near Andreas Clenow in August so may be should arrange a Swiss symposium of TF traders LOL.
30 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Oh, for some reason, I thought you were in London. I like your idea of a Swiss symposium. :)
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Nah I am in the wilds of Cornwall....I have done the City life for too many years. Now at 54 and want some easier environs. Strangely it is easier to gain clients here than the City....presumably as less competition !
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Last update on this....it triggered and worked again...chart attached etc. Hope you earned too?
30 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Great ,, again.. I missed it, though. I was tied up. I am in the wilds of Brampton-50km from toronto so actually is part of the city, now.

I don't miss the commute and I have more fun. win-win
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Sheesh just googled Brampton Toronto.....that is a big city ! Population where I am is at max 11 LOL.
30 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Lucky man-I checked out Cornwall It looks like a great place.You are a lucky guy. I'm stuck here for a bit because my wife doesn't want tog et too far from the kids
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Mike on the positional trade I covered at much the same as you 1.3003 so only +15 made
30 June
fxtime fxtime
this may be of use mate ?
30 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Thanks, that makes sense.
30 June
fxtime fxtime
It was obvious which candle would close above the ''open range'' and in hindsight I should have opened the trade earlier to maximise ROCE....amateur eh :-( LOL.
30 June
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Don't be silly- It is only obvious until it isn't. You have your rules for the trade, so sticking with them isn't amateurish in any way, shape ore form. (I know you were writing in jest)

I will toast you in a few minutes and again tomorrow on "Canada Day". You have just proved that is indeed possible, to teach an old dog new tricks. Have a great week end.
30 June
fxtime fxtime
woof woof LOL....enjoy Canada Day :-)
04 July
fxtime fxtime
Mike.....it (range trade etc) worked again today but my intention is to long at the close tonight fwiw.
04 July
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Yup, I see that now. hmmm
04 July
fxtime fxtime
The reason for the long at the close today is due to the following....
https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/drowning-in-ice-cream-correlations-6867790
Which interestingly worked very well for me this morning on the ftse100 cash market as the same day count and a straight forward profit but this time as a short :-)
04 July
fxtime fxtime
Amended charting forwarded to you :-)
Obviously a break through the upper range line will trigger a long.

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