Kay Van-Petersen
Kay Van-Petersen, macro strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, digests the market action seen in week 43 and gives his tactical positing. Van-Petersen favours a USD step back, sees gold consolidating, and believes that European equities are overheated.
Day trade
Trade view / 01 June 2016 at 7:15 GMT

Rallies look promising with USDJPY at 261.8% extension

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom

USD Index – Dips continue to be bought in the USD with the index moving towards to the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud (96.10). For the last eight days we have been caught within this formation (Cloud). This normally dictates that price action is mixed and volatile. There is scope for further dip buying but, with an Ending Wedge formation present and bearish divergence on the RSI (Relative Strength Index), real caution should be noted at these levels for USD bulls.
Trend line resistance is at 96.12, supports at 95.56 (wedge).

USDJPY – Selling pressure has been seen overnight but there is ample scope for corrective rallies to sell into this morning.

Monthly – Prime zone is still focuses on 101.67-100.57. This is previous support and the 50% Fibonacci level.

Monthly - towards support
 Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly – Still highlights a bearish count alive with the sequence for trading being lower lows and lower highs (waves).

Weekly - Bear Count
Source: Saxo Bank

Daily – We can clearly see that for the last two trading day’s rallies have been capped by the daily Ichimoku Cloud and we have broken to the downside overnight. A retest of the breakout is at 110.30

Daily - Capped by the Cloud
 Source: Saxo Bank

Two Hour – With the intraday chart highlighting the pair stalling at the 261.8% extension level of 109.73, it would be unwise to sell at the open. Reverse trend line resistance is seen at 110.25, close to Ichimoku Cloud base. However, our bespoke resistance is not seen until 110.65. With this in mind we would look to fade a move higher in two units.

Intraday - Stalls at 261.8%
usdjpy 2
 Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description


Entry: Selling at 100.25 and 110.65 (1 unit each)

Stop: 111.05

Target: 109.11 (within 2 sessions) and 101.70 (long-term)

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
01 June
Andrey Derimarko Andrey Derimarko
Entry: Selling at 100.25 ,,???
01 June
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
110.25 and 110.65 ... Thanks for pointing out
02 June
seas seas
Why not trade this 108 level back up, then short?


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