Day trade
Trade view / 30 August 2016 at 7:15 GMT

Long in USDJPY after dip buying in Asia

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDJPY
Price target:
Market price:
Background

USD Index: Although we posted a Doji style candle yesterday on the daily chart there is no clear indication that the upwards move in the US dollar is stalling. However, we do expect some mixed and volatile price action to still be present as we move higher in the bullish channel formation.  

USD Index
Source: Saxo Bank 

I have taken a long trade is USDJPY and here is why...

Monthly: For the last three months dips have been bought under the 50% pullback level of 100.57. Although we will post another inside Harami candle (indecision), this does give a mild upward bias. 

USDJPY M
Source: Saxo Bank 

Weekly: Completed a bearish Elliott five-wave pattern at 100.44. The choppy price action that has caused the inside Harami candles on the monthly chart can be seen as an AB=CD formation. This would take the par to 108.20.

USDJPY w
Source: Saxo Bank  

Daily: Dip buying after Fed chair Janet Yellen’s press release on Friday resulted in the pair posting a bullish Outside Day. This is often an indication of the start of a new upwards trend. Resistance is seen at 107.75.

USDJPY D
Source: Saxo Bank  

Intraday (four hours): Looks to be forming a bullish Elliott Wave pattern with the dip being bought overnight (4th wave) close to the 161.8% extension level of 102.16. There is no clear indication that the upwards move is coming to an end so we have bought at market (102.15) looking for a move towards 103.78, the 261.8% extension level from the 99.53-101.15 move. Although we do have a congestion area at 102.50, we look for dips to continue to attract buyers.  
USDJPY 4
Source: Saxo Bank  

Management and risk description

Slight caution is needed with the one hour chart close to an exhaustion count. We will monitor price action close to 102.50.

Parameters

Entry: long at 102.15.

Stop: 101.15.

Target: 103.75.

Time horizon: two or three sessions.

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
1y
AlexF AlexF
Thanks Ian for that clear, in line with Saxo strat and also UBS CIO reco. What do you expect at 102.5 ? Will you take profit or stay in the position. If we do retrace any expectation ?
1y
AlexF AlexF
As we speak heading to 102.5
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I don't see any reason to get out yet.... I am going to hold
1y
AlexF AlexF
Ok please share your updates and thoughts during the day : ) GL
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
pulling in stop ... Fischer speaking
1y
AlexF AlexF
are you still long or taking profit ?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
still long next intraday barrier 103.00 ....
1y
AlexF AlexF
Ok moving another leg as we speak...
1y
AlexF AlexF
Feel like should take some profit or move stop loss
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
102.64 is a DeMark level. Up to you. I have nothing from my system until 103.57... I might pull stop to open soon
1y
AlexF AlexF
Still in but close one position to take some profit, have been since 100.25
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
very nice. Well done
1y
Dj TinTin Dj TinTin
still in might hold until 103
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I have trailed a stop at 102.60
1y
Dj TinTin Dj TinTin
just needs to break the 102.70/80 then were good for 103 , well that's my input (newbe) haha
1y
AlexF AlexF
stop at 102.45
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
all input is good input ;-)
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I will go back in on dips (if it hits my TP)
1y
Dj TinTin Dj TinTin
got to start some where
1y
AlexF AlexF
Oil just broke down the 46.5 should help USD
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Big Fib level at 1.3090 USDCAD
1y
Dj TinTin Dj TinTin
I'm long so fingers crossed
1y
AlexF AlexF
keep on crossing these fingers working so far : )
1y
Dj TinTin Dj TinTin
its knocking on the door
1y
AlexF AlexF
Closed my positions waiting for pullback did you take any profit Ian ?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Yes. Out at 102.95. Well done
1y
seas seas
Indeed.
1y
AlexF AlexF
Hi Ian went back in this morning 103,15, what are your thoughts ? Retrace at 103,57 ?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
nice... my resistance is at 103.57 and 103.91
1y
AlexF AlexF
Ok let's see getting close

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