Day trade
Trade view / 22 August 2016 at 7:15 GMT

Limited upside for USDCHF

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDCHF
Price target:
Market price:
Background

USD Index – Just hitting the intraday 261.78% extension level of 94.91 (from 954.05-94.38) and possibly forming a double top pattern. There's no clear indication that the bias is changing as yet but it would be unwise to buy USDs at the open. 

 
USD Index
 Source: Saxo Bank

We look for the upside to be limited in USDCHF and here is why:

Weekly Chart – Highlights the pair in a bearish channel formation. There is no clear indication that this corrective sequence is coming to an end. Posted a bearish Outside Week on the July 25 with subsequent rallies being capped by the Marabuzo level of 0.9798.

USDCHF W
Source: Saxo Bank 

Daily Chart – Highlights very mixed trading. We did break the trend of higher lows on Thursday but levels under 0.9610 have attracted some profit taking. 

USDCHF D
Source: Saxo Bank 

Six hours – The last two drives lower have been impulsive. This would suggest that any moves to the upside are profit taking corrections. The reverse trendline resistance is at 0.9689. Our bespoke resistance is located at 0.9689. We cannot rule out a move to this resistance. However, with a solid barrier also at 0.9672, we would prefer to fade the move.  The prime target is at 161.8% extension at 0.9442.

USDCHF 6
 Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description

We would look to move a stop to entry on a move to 0.9600

Parameters

Entry: Selling 1 unit at 0.9672 and 0.9688 

Stop: 40 pips combined (0.9720)

Target: 0.9445

Time horizon: today to trigger 2-3 session for the target 

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
1y
Anton Bushin Anton Bushin
Hi Ian, do you trade EURGBP today?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I sold first thing this morning. Have cashed in small..... still a sellers but waiting for more price cation
1y
Anton Bushin Anton Bushin
Thank you!
1y
vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111
Hi,Ian! Your opinion on USDCHF now ?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
mildly bearish but could take 0.9700 first
1y
vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111
T|P ? Thanks!
1y
vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111
Hi,Ian! Your opinion on USDCHF now ?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I am still trying to sell into USD rallies (across the board)

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