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Kay Van-Petersen
Back in December 2016, Saxo global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen predicted that Bitcoin would test $2,000. The cryptocurrency hit that level in May this year - now he makes another prediction.
Article / 10 December 2014 at 9:20 GMT

Le Royaume-Uni sort de l’Union européenne en 2017

Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
Denmark
Le Parti de l’Indépendance UKIP remporte 25% des suffrages au niveau national lors des élections générales britanniques du 7 mai 2015 et fait sensation en devenant le troisième parti au parlement.
 
Toutefois, à cause du scrutin majoritaire en vigueur au Royaume-Uni, selon lequel un parti doit arriver en tête dans une circonscription pour gagner un siège au parlement, le UKIP n’obtient qu’un tiers des sièges contrôlés par les Conservateurs comme par les Travaillistes.
Il n’empêche que le UKIP, qui fait campagne sur un programme anti-UE et anti-immigration, détient les clés du pouvoir et fait alliance avec les conservateurs de David Cameron au sein d’un gouvernement de coalition. Son leader, Nigel Farage, devient premier ministre adjoint et Cameron appelle à un référendum sur l’appartenance du Royaume-Uni à l’UE, programmé pour 2017. Le taux de rendement des gilts, les obligations d’Etat britanniques, grimpe fortement alors que les sondages commencent à donner le «Oui» gagnant au référendum sur la sortie de l’UE.

Ce scénario aboutit à notre prévision choc d’une possible sortie du Royaume-Uni de l’Union européenne en 2017.
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