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Article / 10 December 2014 at 9:06 GMT

La Chine dévalue le yuan de 20%

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
Alors que la bulle chinoise de l’immobilier domestique et du crédit se corrige, si elle n’implose pas, la Chine va chercher par tous les moyens à atténuer les énormes pressions déflationnistes qui caractérisent la phase descendante du cycle de crédit.
 
Facteur aggravant conduisant la Chine à agir : trois années consécutives de baisse des prix à la production en raison de surcapacités massives.

Dans cet environnement, un yuan chinois au plus haut historique (en données ajustées de l’inflation) n’a aucun sens, surtout à la lumière de la situation simultanée du voisin japonais, dont le taux de change est au plus bas (toujours en données ajustées de l’inflation à mi-novembre).

En 2015, donc, la Chine va agir rapidement et de manière appuyée pour dévaluer sa devise dans le courant de l’année, rejoignant le Japon et d’autres pays dans le combat mondial pour importer de l’inflation.

Cela met en route une chaîne de dévaluations en Asie et le risque de sanctions économiques et financières avec le Japon.
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