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Video / 14 April 2015 at 10:09 GMT

Koefoed: More downside for EURUSD ahead of ECB meeting

Mads Koefoed
Will Mario Draghi reassure investors at Wednesday's ECB meeting as rumours circulate that the ECB could end its QE programme early? Saxo Bank’s Head of Macro Strategy, Mads Koefoed, talks about the importance of the meeting and the potential impact on European stocks.

The ECB has committed to carrying out QE up until September 2016, and only one month into it, investors are already considering the possibility of tapering. This concern is due to the overwhelming early success of the programme, which has pushed multiple European indices to multi-year highs.

Koefoed does not believe that Draghi will announce any plans to decrease its asset purchasing programme but he thinks there's a possibility that the ECB could run out of bonds to purchase. Therefore, Mads suggests that Draghi could expand the list of assets available for purchase.

One of Europe’s largest bond markets, Spain, has proven to be one of the largest beneficiaries from the ECB’s programme. Spain’s IBEX has grown more than most of its European counterparts this year, and Spanish equities are "quite cheap compared to their expected growth" according to Mads. As the QE programme continues, the weaker euro could aid all European exporters. Mads states that EURUSD could continue to pressure the 1.05 area and even reach parity in the long term.
4y
Rajeev Mehta Rajeev Mehta
While I am no economist, the current EU indices levels post QE are disproportionate. Only Germany seems to be on jet fuel, if I was to compare the situation about 2 months ago. Also, there have been changes in the stocks in the indices. Could that not have been the cause for this change in indices? I am not sure who gets the QE benefits, is it passed on to the common man?

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