Squawk / 24 August 2018 at 14:06 GMT
Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
Jackson Hole speech by Fed's Powell. The initial focus seems to be on Powell's comment that there no signs of inflation pickup accelerating now that it has risen above 2% and there are no signs of overheating. The kneejerk reaction here is to sell the USD as EM and risk appetite celebrate this as non-hawkish.

Link to text of speech: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20180824a.htm
John J Hardy John J Hardy
Some of USD reaction could be on China's move earlier today to signal stronger intervention in the CNY level. I don't see enough in this speech specifically to drive a sustained USD weakening - if the USD does weaken anyway, we'll have to look for other reasons outside of this Powell speech.
John J Hardy John J Hardy
Market has put the Goldilocks scenario back in the microwave and is reheating on Turbo setting. I am a bit reluctant to believe we will see this trade put back on in a big way, but narratives are narratives and flows are flows. Before the Goldilocks idea extends for too long, we should all remind ourselves that Fed Chairman Powell is far, far more on point regarding the risks from financial excesses. If this risk-on trade has been put on simply due to the comments on inflation and no signs of overheating, also consider this quote from the same speech Powell delivered today:

"Whatever the cause, in the run-up to the past two recessions, destabilizing excesses appeared mainly in financial markets rather than in inflation. Thus, risk management suggests looking beyond inflation for signs of excesses."
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