Kay Van-Petersen
PMI data, Q4 growth and GDP figures are on tap in week 43, but central-bank meetings could be the key events, says Kay Van-Petersen, macro strategist at Saxo Capital Markets.
Squawk / 12 August 2016 at 11:17 GMT
partner and technical analyst / 3 c analysis
United Kingdom
IS FTSE TELLING US THAT OIL HAS BOTTOMED ? - FTSE has confirmed a bullish Head & Shoulders reversal, breaking the neckline in June and targeting 7400.0.
Crude Oil is in the process of forming a similar pattern. The right shoulder is being formed, as the sell-off since June's 51.34 top has stalled and reversed from close to 38.74, a 50% correction to the entire 2016 rally (26.14-51.34). A long trend of lower weekly highs has been ended this week, the first sign that sentiment may be switching to bullish.
The end to a sequence of lower quarterly highs has switched our 3 month call to bullish, but ideally the market needs to recover above the broken long-term quarterly bull trend to give confidence to bulls.
However, signals are pointing to the probabliity that a long-term low is being put in place. The stop on this view is at 35.35, April's base and targets are to 51.34, June's high and 62.58, the 2015 top.
If the Head & Shoulders pattern is confimed then Oil has a target near $ 75.00.
12 August
Allied Allied
Sorry oil @ $75 ? WTF ?
12 August
Steve Lucas Steve Lucas
when i worked for dresdner in 2003 the head of strategy laughed me out the room when I said that oil was more likely to to go to $50, than the $10 he was expecting.....The pattern I am referring to above has NOT been completed yet and it may take 1-2 years. I know it's hard to believe, but one thing I have learnt is to trust the charts not what you think ! ....that is a long time to wait, but the signals are pointing to a low being formed...nice weekend bol.
13 August
Futuretick Futuretick
That should be a very good news for EMEA and Russia :) They will looks like rich again compared to UK (with £ selling 40% discount from 2008!) and other EUs!!
22 August
trading4fun trading4fun
nice stuff, steve


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail