Day trade
Trade view / 17 June 2016 at 7:06 GMT

Immediate bias turns bearish for USDCAD inside the wedge

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDCAD
Price target:
Market price:

USD Index – There was a sharp turnaround in the USD index in late trade yesterday, rejecting the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and forming a Doji style daily candle. We expect trading to remain mixed and volatile with rallies likely to find sellers today. We're going to focus on USDCAD today. 

Monthly – Nothing changing in the monthly chart with the pair consolidating. Long-term bias is still bearish after the Gartley formation. 
 Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly – For the last ten weeks we have been broadly confined to the Ichimoku Cloud. Expect daily results to be mixed. We are likely to eventually move higher in a choppy three wave corrective formation.
 Source: Saxo Bank

Daily – The Ichimoku cloud top acted as resistance yesterday. The base of this formation is located at 1.2780
 Source: Saxo Bank

Four-hour chart – This timeframe highlights the pair in an expanding wedge formation that has an eventual bias to break to the upside. Trading inside this pattern is expected to be mixed and volatile. 
 Source: Saxo Bank

The 15-minute chart highlights an impulsive five wave Elliott wave pattern. Even if this is a part of a corrective formation we should see at least an AB=CD move lower (this being A-B). We have bespoke resistance at 1.2972 and 1.2990. With the 50% pullback level being at 1.2990, this is our prime level to get short. 
 Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description


Entry: Selling close to 1.2990

Stop:1.3070 (wedge top)

Target: 1.2817 and possibly 1.2780 (2/1 risk/reward)

Time horizon:3-4 sessions

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
Invinci Invinci
Hi Ian - thanks for this - so short until base of 1.2780-1.2820, before next upturn breakout?
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
yes ... looks for a move to the downside before the next rally
John Shaw John  Shaw
Excellent observation Ian. Thank you very much for sharing. Have a great weekend.
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Thanks John..... and you. Really appreciate the feedback


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