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Dan Larsen
Saxo Bank’s Head of FX Options Dan Juhl-Larsen shares his insights and experience trading FX options and looks at the opportunities on offer in the market.
Squawk / 21 September 2016 at 17:57 GMT
Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
I'm expecting a USD-bullish outcome from this.
Logic in my earlier preview:

Briefly, three possible outcomes
1) A surprise hike - very USD-bullish - very unlikely

2) No hike but signaling that December hike is very probable - moderately USD-bullish, most likely

3) No hike and dovish signaling - USD bearish, very unilikely
asousa27 asousa27
Juhani, was option 2) ?
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
asousa27, yes it was:

No rate cut now - and three dissenters who wanted to hike now. Strong signaling that a hike is coming later in 2016 - most likely December, but maybe earlier.

USD weakening a little bit, a knee-jerk reaction to "no hike", as I thought was possible in my preview.

Let's see how the initial reaction plays out - as ppl read the policy statement, see dissent, read analysis and hear Yellen's press conference, maybe the "hike coming in December" will kick in and begin lifting USD.
asousa27 asousa27
Thanks for the explanation Juhani!
asousa27 asousa27
Seems Yellen speech was a bit dovish right?
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
Still listening to her press conference.
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
Does not look like USD is getting stronger on this. Maybe (as in my longer piece linked above) it will be the minutes and the Fed speeches that will begin to emphasize the December hike.


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