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John J Hardy
Saxo Bank's Head of FX Strategy John Hardy gives his take on why USD is underperforming and how markets could evolve over the coming months.
Squawk / 14 June 2016 at 15:47 GMT
Hypothesis Testing
United Kingdom
I suggested yesterday a probability play on SP500 using a 30min opening bell trading range for establishing probable day high or low in real trading hours.
Link attached...
https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/this-may-be-of-use-for-market-direction-more-than-true-prediction-of-day-highs-and-lows-quite-a-few-7760823
Primarilly it simply implies direction and for how far and once the max low or high projection has been hit it shows reasonably good contrarian trade points to enter.
Once again it worked today.....chart attached with explanation.
1y
fxtime fxtime
Remember the size of the opening 30min trading range will determine the suggested day high or low once you have your first 30min close above or below the initial 30min parameter. Today as per yesterday we closed below the open range (with a close greater than 0.5pts) so a simple deduction from that triggering close value of the open range gives us the suggested day low for today and potential bounce point. This isn't a positional play and is utterly useless on FOMC days like tomorrow...so ignore this theorem tomorrow as you will lose money.
1y
trading4fun trading4fun
https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/trading-tips-tricks-7729250 was just on the point a couple of days ago ;)
1y
fxtime fxtime
I should have spotted that tweezer pattern...good call :-)
1y
trading4fun trading4fun
guess, we are now on allert for buy signal, which usually comes out of hourly charts. if this is the case, the bounce can be quite a significant one, targeting all the previous bullish hammers on the hourly today, my estimate 2075 by the bell
1y
trading4fun trading4fun
2074 ;)
1y
trading4fun trading4fun
2075 by the bell, right on the point
1y
fxtime fxtime
Good call....I turned where suggested on the chart but a good call of yours as I traded only 20% normal stake size :-)
Stop preset for +3

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