Article / 24 June 2016 at 4:42 GMT

How a Brexit will play out: Jakobsen

Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
  • Leave is well ahead; it is leading by 700,000 votes
  • BoE will most likely cut rates around lunch time
  • The reaction of this cut will dictate next 48 hours – watch how policymakers talk
  • Market will open on stop orders but should find balance early on
  • The FTSE is likely to fall 7.5% on the future market, S&P by 3.8%....
  • Fixed income will be very bid – US 10 and 30 yr yield is down 25 bps (massive)
  • Club Med market will be more challenged than core Europe – with banks most likely being worst performing industry group
  • GBP/USD as John Hardy pointed out pre-Brexit 1.3500 is critical…
  • S&P very close to overnight LIMIT Down…at 1999.00

By Steen Jakobsen

Sterling takes a pounding nnn

Hard landing for FTSE

100 SMA at 5811-00 (Futures at 5812)….200 SMA at 5585.00 and channel more important…


The EU and the European Central Bank
The European Central Bank will provide unlimited liquidity to its banking system and EU will “accept vote” and await UK invoking Article 50 in the Treaty.

This is good news for Europeans long term, but with short-term pain and uncertainty...the process of reform will be catapulted forward as the EU can no longer continue to ignore voters across Europe.

Listening to the BBC all night this is the message: "Split country, scare mongering has turned voters from remain to leave, two fingers to Parliament, the broken social contract, the three main parties in the UK campaigned for Remain and failed……
"This is clearly a signal I have been trying to alert everyone about: The social contract has been cancelled by the UK voters and more so also with the EU. The deal [UK Prime Minister David] Cameron got started the two tier Europe, but now we have a fragmented Europe where the Super State is very difficult to imagine….."

David Cameron will announce his resignation timetable, but he will most likely remain in Downing Street to invoke article 50 and set up the negotiation team with the EU. Remember article 50 states two-year period plus a resetting of “relationship rules”…

The Brexit vote will give momentum to anti-establishment campaigns in Spain (which will have an election next week) and in France (which head to the polls in early 2017) and most likely confirm how even in the US, Donald Trump still has a chance..

– Edited by Robert Ryan

Steen Jakobsen is chief economist and CIO of Saxo Bank. 


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail