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Dembik Christopher
Ahead of the German election, Saxo Bank’s head of macroeconomic research Christopher Dembik explains why the country's economy is facing many challenges during the coming years.
Squawk / 01 August 2016 at 8:03 GMT
Consultant in Derivatives and Commodity Specialist / Manor Derivatives(Consulting) Ltd
United Kingdom
hi mate- greetings..........gonna have a bit more time today, so what we looking at this morning?
1y
fxtime fxtime
data sent :-)
1y
fxtime fxtime
LOL....I am in a coffee shop and one of the trades completed before I could type it LOL....but you you have the data. :-)
1y
fxtime fxtime
Max drawdown was 8pts fwiw ref ftse cash and max time exposure 4mins ROCE positive
1y
Neil D Neil D
Blimey that is short term...........also is this correct that your stops far exceed your max expectation of profit.............and is this because your prob of success is v high?? Am asking this because am more used to looking at ratios of prof/loss rather differently.
1y
fxtime fxtime
Yeah we are both former front desk but totally different criteria. Probability must be stupidly high and time factor is the big issue as it has to be very tight for trade duration. You had last weeks stuff live. Stops are preset at 45 but are adjusted hard down asap or if the tarde range is tighter I will adjust stops down EXCEPT for the DAX.
The Loon has two set ups and the stop can be 20pips though !!
1y
fxtime fxtime
Sheesh in our game you would think I could spell the word ''trade'' !!
1y
fxtime fxtime
LOL..Lottery tickets are cheap with low probability of a jackpot win for a reason.
1y
Neil D Neil D
Lol...........just too excitable. Am gonna have to study this a bit to get the hang of the methods..........it does intuitively go against the grain I have to say. I had this debate once before with Stephen Pope where I couldn't understand how he set such distant stop levels when looking for fairly short term profits
1y
Neil D Neil D
now you're comparing apples with oranges lol
1y
Neil D Neil D
what determines the stops being moved closer?
1y
fxtime fxtime
Trading range....if the trade range is only 25pts then make your stop the same.
BUT some markets vibrate at 25 - 38pts eg the DAX so intitially it is the wider stop.
Remember I only look for the stupidly high probability factor not the 84% one. You are right I was comparing apples and oranges before but when I drive my car I expect it to stop when I want it too and not just 84% of the time. Although that said it is a Landy so perhaps I expect too much LOL.
Very high quantified rolling data is used and if it doesn't fit the criteria then you have to step away from the trade and keep your money safe. I agree it is against the grain but how many times have you done a simple action at home or work with high probability that something will do as you historically know will occur. Cars are great examples....sure they breakdown but normally we have very high expectation that our expensive motor will do the simplest and shortest task required again and again.
1y
Neil D Neil D
I think your a frustrated mathematician lol
1y
fxtime fxtime
LOL.....when I teach mathematical models to students I wonder what language I speak as the blank faces I see presumably thinking the same as you LOL.
1y
Neil D Neil D
I think being theoretical when you're used to being in the heat of the battle with all the incumbent emotions is unusual, but then it's a useful thing to have in the armoury, especially when talking about building an income source! It does remind me of when I was back-testing (on a purely unscientific basis I might add), when we decided to run as a grey box, cos I couldn't not have an input!
1y
fxtime fxtime
cable triggered and worked +5 etc.
euro nearly triggered and then returned back to the trading range only
dax hasn't triggered either.
ROCE has now doubled for the day though :-)
1y
fxtime fxtime
To be honest I trade really mechanically...emotions do not occur on these because I know at some point I will have a stop hit but the bigger picture and underlying acct growth is evident. I regard a stop being hit like the old adage of a frog in a well ...two steps forward one back etc etc although that is only a 50% probability frog LOL.
1y
Neil D Neil D
Tbh it's easier when you're running this type of system..........it's an algo really
1y
Neil D Neil D
are all the entries for each market you trade based on the same time frame breaks??
1y
fxtime fxtime
No....this is the pure vanilla structure....you can tighten the criteria further to give better results but as a starting point it is OK. I can fwd tighter time frames or larger ones depending on what you want and the tighter trade set up too.
1y
fxtime fxtime
oh by the way the dax trade did trigger and work for a further +5....you already know my stake size so three trades and three wins as it were. But I have done eleven trades in total today yipppeeee....as you say trade it like an algo. Something I am trying to teach readers (here) on a weekly basis. :-)
1y
fxtime fxtime
Drawdown on DAX....was 6pts....the stop is wide for obvious reasons but the physical drawdown once triggered is often far small. But as we trade probability from an hourly timeframe on this trade structure we have to utilise the larger stop even though the trade ran for a few minutes only.
1y
fxtime fxtime
Now I re-instate the DAX long order day only awaiting a fill :-)
1y
fxtime fxtime
OK either you done the +5 trade or sought +10 with slightly lower probability on FTSE?
Drinks on you :-)
1y
Neil D Neil D
yeah still got ftse, but stopped on cable
1y
fxtime fxtime
Interesting FX not triggered yet ! Will reset orders on fx and make new dax orders near to 10 etc etc
The ftse unfilled long order remains for the duration of today fwiw.Likewise any unfilled FX (9-10 orders, Hope this makes sense?
Got to go as this coffee shop is getting full....but my systems will do the above.
1y
fxtime fxtime
Cable? Why as the 7 -9am range not be broken and we adjust to 9 -10am very soon
1y
Neil D Neil D
ah your mail yday said 8-9?
1y
Neil D Neil D
oh it was a typo lol
1y
Neil D Neil D
& instead of 7 lol
1y
fxtime fxtime
really !!! LOL you even mentioned to me about the 7 9am and we described tapering ranges. Thankfully a demo acct trade of yours for this....to be clear 7 - 9am trading range which resets to 9 - 10 and the 9-10 range then remains valid for the trading day. Sorry mate....yesterday was a manic day and I must be going senile LOL.
1y
Neil D Neil D
no probs mate
1y
fxtime fxtime
I am about to leave this place so ;
I will reset for 9 -10 fx ranges and will start to use the 9 - 10 range for the DAX too.
Chat later.
1y
Neil D Neil D
made the money back on cable

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