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Peter Garnry
Microsoft is reporting its Q4 earnings Thursday and Saxo Bank head of equity strategy Peter Garnry is looking for 1-2% growth on the top and bottom lines.
Squawk / 29 June 2016 at 14:21 GMT
forex trader / self employed
United Kingdom
hi fxtime on the scalp trade you discused with michael today, what would have been your stop loss?
29 June
fxtime fxtime
The two trades are probability plays so for the first stratgey the open range is your stop.....whilst risk/reward parameter seems grim you also have to determine whether the 94% probability of success outweighs the risk. However the other trade scenario I gave for positional trade is initially 50pips and then trail....if it was a bullish signal then I would adjust my stops to the low of the prior candle and adjust every hour. Should a stop be hit normally on positional trades like this I halve the trade and place a stop at b/e on the remainder. Usually the first reversal candle is a fake move and there is more profit (or as some call it....money on the table) available.
Hope this makes sense?
Typically for the +5pip strategy it a high stake say $100/pip but the positional trade would be $25 as an ratio example.
29 June
marran marran
many thanks its a very interesting stratagy
29 June
fxtime fxtime
For the highest risk/reward strategy eg +5 at high stake
max consecutive wins = 48
max consec losses = 1
Optimum stop or if you prefer max drawdown = 48pips which is why I use a 50pip stop.
5yrs of rolling data used.
I see you are from the UK....Make sure you use the 11am-12noon range mate.
Happy trading :-)
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Marran...todays move.....it worked again.
Chart attached for you....
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Marran....markets moved to the other positional stance and once again the trade worked. So +10 high stakes banked....now we look for an intraday positional trade to run on.
30 June
Estuardorlemus Estuardorlemus
Hi fx time. Can i have your email ??
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Sorry mate I give my email to commercial client account holders only. You are welcome to ask anything here on site though and I will happily respond.
30 June
Estuardorlemus Estuardorlemus
Do you have a website ? Im very curious how you calc the probability of a certain value to happen. Thanks for the response !
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Two ways...one by frequency using a three year rolling data set to show usual things like success/fail rate along with drawdown and maximum/minimum profits available.
Secondly is using Probability of Touch models used in option trading.
You could also consider Bayes theorem (Probability = (B given that A occurred etc).. which works well along with a Null Hypothesis (both can be googled) but the simple mathematic route would be using a frequency chart.
30 June
Estuardorlemus Estuardorlemus
Thanks for the reply , I will check that. where I check your "sale of statistical trading models" ? Thanks !
30 June
fxtime fxtime
The sale of statistical models are commercial algo scenarios that plot probability cones and confidence factors for various events and multiple inputs/causalities.....to be honest they are unlikely to be os use to a sole trader as normally they are used by commercials who want to neutralise fx effects on their corporate buying power...eg the cost of fuel or cost of raw commodities and if I can nullify adverse market effects then they can determine a more accurate costing structure in their management accounting programmes and retail pricing. Retail charge is a four figure sum fwiw :-)
30 June
fxtime fxtime
If you look back at my weekly articles you will find they all overlay each other to give you a tighter trade structure with every conceivable control built into it and they are free. Likewise I give real time updates like the usdcad with explanations. I don't charge Tradingfloor for them and it is a viable hands on trade platform scenario that will work for you. There are quite a few here that have backtested the tardes that will be able to vouch for the veracity of the trade setups for you :-)
30 June
Estuardorlemus Estuardorlemus
I find the prob set up very interesting, please contact me on estrlsmar4@gmail.com i will really apreciate it.
30 June
marran marran
Brilliant mate! If im honest the high stop loss would worry me, but it looks a great system do you tend to only use it on the udscad?
30 June
fxtime fxtime
No all major fx pairs have different time frames which work for differing yields but the +5 is the highest probability factor compared to other gains. Look at the drawdowns of today and you will see they were limited. When I started posting these and look at all the charts and 40pips banked so far this week if we ignore the second part of trade structure eg the bare minimum return and this would go a long way to covering future drawdowns. On the original article post of Mikes I give the total result for the last year including total losses incurred.
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Marran perhaps we need to consider ......Do we want a trade that is nigh on a certainty to work but offers less profit (and therefore demands higher stakes) or we take a higher risk and lower probability and lower stake size to work successfully. Both are very viable trade plans but as I have TIME as a risk vector in my trade set ups I seek the highest probability and lowest TIME exposure for the swiftest profits as a paramount plan. Hope this makes sense?
30 June
zefy zefy
I strongly recommend to take time to study weekly articles from Fxtime: do programming to your own system and backtesting. I have found significant improvements to my system by applying overlays like RSI5, ROC, MMA11 and MA spreads together. Better entry orders and smaller drawdowns.
Also I would like to highlight bell curves and whistles article, it is great description of standard deviation and statistical distribution.
30 June
fxtime fxtime
Thx Zefy.....hopefully Estuardolemus you will find these sections.
04 July
fxtime fxtime
update for you....july 4th
:-)
04 July
marran marran
Thanks for the update much appreciated! Why are you going long if it closes at a daily low?
04 July
marran marran
on the high probability trade you have a stop of 50 pips, would you normaly let it run upto the 50 pips or close out before? thanks
04 July
fxtime fxtime
To be honest the 50pips is a maximum...normally I look at the triggering candles range as my stop so if it is under the 50pips I will adjust downwards to match the triggering candles range otherwise the absolute max stop is 50pips....todays triggering range was only 21pips fwiw so my stop would be 22pips and had the stop been hit the trade would automatically turn to be a long :-)
04 July
fxtime fxtime
As for why will I enter a long at the close etc... see attached;
https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/drowning-in-ice-cream-correlations-6867790
Also look at todays FTSE100 cash market....the exact same trade for the daily count and a nice profit with a tight trailing stop.
04 July
fxtime fxtime
Marran....remember todays trading ''open range'' is tight therefore I am not expecting any big moves today on the Loon.
04 July
marran marran
have read the article drowning/ice cream, very interesting will be checking the close on usdcad tonight! many thanks
04 July
fxtime fxtime
correlate it to todays FTSE 100 cash market and you will see what I mean.....just remember it is not a positional trade...just a scalp.
04 July
fxtime fxtime
correction todays open range was 11 - 12pips range. Sorry Marran typo error there.
04 July
marran marran
when you are looking to place the high probability trade do you feel more confident if its a tight range?
04 July
fxtime fxtime
The trade is statistical.....as it is biased to a price break out as its main parameter for entry then you can only accept a max range stop of 50pips for max efficacy and the minimum unfortunately has to be accepted for what it is. I agree with your implication that very tight stops are risky too....afterall stop and turn trades can easilly be triggered but the stats models holds steadfast over the years so I have like today just accepted the model. Usually tight ranges occur on illiquid days such as today and are relatively slow and inert days or occur prior to big USA impact releases and the sudden moves even in a whipsaw pattern generates profits because the profit point expectation is small. Thus overall it seems to survive.
04 July
fxtime fxtime
FWIW if it was a cable or a eurusd trade then there are minimum and maximum trading ranges but the Loon is in a fortunate window of time for moves.

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